Dai Sujuan: Steel exports may decline slightly next year

On December 19-21, 2014, the “2015 China Steel Market Outlook” and “My Steel” Annual Meeting were held at the Shanghai International Sourcing Convention and Exhibition Center. Daisteuan, a senior analyst at Mysteel, expects steel exports to fall slightly to 85 million tons this year.

This year's steel exports in China almost exceeded everyone's expectations. The data shows that the steel exports in the first ten months of this year were 73.893 million tons, an increase of 42.2%.

Dai Sujuan said that with the continuous recovery of the overseas economy, the overall increase in domestic and international steel price spreads and the active exploitation of steel mills' foreign sales channels have made China's steel exports exceeded expectations this year, setting a new high. She expects steel exports for the whole year to be around 90 million tons.

From the point of view of exporting countries, steel exports to South Korea account for the highest proportion, accounting for 14.55% of all steel exports. ASEAN member countries and the United States are major export destinations for steel products in China. From the perspective of export varieties, plates and rods and wires are the main export varieties in China, and the export of the two varieties accounts for nearly 80%.

With the substantial increase in steel exports, countries and regions that initiated trade remedy investigations on China's steel products also experienced significant growth.

It is also worth noting that due to policy factors, many steels add boron and enjoy export tax rebates. The proportion of China's boron-containing steel exports has increased from 40% in 2012 to 53% in the third quarter of this year. However, she estimates that the cancellation of the export tax rebate for boron-containing steel will not be implemented in 2015.

For the steel export situation next year, Dai Sujuan said that the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy will have certain impact on the industry, and there is uncertainty. She expects that the export volume of steel will drop slightly to 85 million tons on the basis of this year.