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Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, recently revealed that the "12th Five-Year Plan for Photovoltaic Power Generation" prepared by the National Energy Administration has clearly revised the PV "12th Five-Year Plan" installation target to 10 GW to 2020. The installed target may be significantly raised to 50 GW. Previously, the data circulating in the industry was “China’s PV installed capacity will reach 5 GW in 2015 and 20 GW in 2020.†When Italy and Germany, which account for 70% of the international PV installation market, cut their subsidies sharply, China's timely improvement of installed targets is expected to promote the large-scale start of the domestic PV market. The goal of doubling “The National Energy Administration has indeed compiled the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Photovoltaic Power Generation†and has been consulting extensively with industry experts and companies. The “12th Five-Year†PV installation target is indeed 10 GW. "The head of a well-known photovoltaic company in China recently said. The scale has doubled than expected. An industry insider revealed: "In March this year, the "12th Five-Year Plan" adopted by the National "Two Sessions" did not clearly state that the "12th Five-Year" photovoltaic installed capacity was 5 GW. Rather, it is necessary to achieve more than 5 GW of installed capacity, so this is considered as a way to achieve greater installed capacity." The person said that although the plan is still being submitted to the public, the possibility of a final increase is very high. According to Meng Xianzhao, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, the goal of increasing the installed capacity of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†to 10 GW is relatively large, and its operability and realization possibilities are relatively large. “The relevant government departments have issued a signal to explicitly support photovoltaic power generation.†It is reported that the “Golden Sun†project will receive special financial subsidies from the Ministry of Finance, and an annual average of 1 GW of installed capacity will be realized after 2013; On the other hand, the relevant person in charge of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission recently said that in the next two years, China is expected to increase the price of renewable energy from 0.004 yuan per kWh to 0.006 yuan, and increase to 0.01 yuan after 2015. This will strongly support the development of the new energy industry represented by photovoltaic power generation. Li Shengmao, a senior researcher at China Investment Consulting, believes that the domestic PV installed capacity of 10 GW during the 12th Five-Year Plan period and the goal of achieving 50 GW of photovoltaic installed capacity in 2020 are reasonable, and the possibility of achieving the goal on time is high. "Although the current domestic electricity price of thermal power is generally lower than 0.5 yuan per kWh, considering the rising cost of thermal power and environmental protection during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period and the establishment of coal-electricity linkage mechanism, the on-grid price will inevitably rise, and the future Within 5-7 years, the cost per kWh of domestic photovoltaic power generation is expected to drop to around 0.6 yuan, and by then, it will be able to achieve photovoltaic power generation at home in China." Li Shengmao said that after photovoltaic power generation achieves parity, the domestic PV market The demand will be thoroughly stimulated, and the installed capacity of photovoltaic power plants will grow rapidly. One yuan project helps the market to open At present, China has become the world's largest producer of photovoltaic cells, accounting for 55% of the global market share in 2010. However, due to the relatively high cost of photovoltaic power generation, the growth of domestic PV installed capacity is still relatively slow. As of the end of last year, the total installed capacity of domestic PV grid-connected power generation is expected to be only around 0.6GW. In response to this, two PV companies, including Wuxi Suntech, Tianwei Yingli, Jingao Solar, and LDK, issued the “Luoyang Declaration†two years ago, claiming to achieve the goal of 1 yuan per kWh of PV power in 2012. It is reported that for a long time, the biggest bottleneck restricting the development of the domestic photovoltaic industry is that the on-grid price of photovoltaic power generation is much higher than that of conventional power. The cost of 1 yuan / kWh is considered to be the threshold for PV companies to open up the domestic market. The "Luoyang Declaration" has made the "one yuan project" officially a common goal of the domestic photovoltaic industry. Only if the cost of generating electricity is less than 1 yuan, will the company be able to form a profitable space and its enthusiasm will increase. Recently, Yingli Green Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. announced that its power generation cost has been reduced to less than 1 yuan per kilowatt. It is reported that the cost of photovoltaic power generation is divided into three parts: solar photovoltaic cells and components, materials and equipment, and related packages. In addition, it also includes the cost of building a power plant, such as land, cable and other supporting facilities. Among them, the component cost accounts for 70%-80% of the cost of photovoltaic power generation. Song Dengyuan, chief technology officer of Yingli Group, said that the cost of upstream silicon materials accounts for more than 60% of the cost of photovoltaic modules. In China, the majority of silicon materials rely on imports. "At present, Yingli's silicon materials are only 60% more dependent on imports, and with the silicon plant's successive production and expansion, the external dependence of silicon materials will be further reduced." Yingli related sources said. In August 2010, Yingli announced that its subsidiary, Liujiu Silicon, was officially put into production. Liujiu Silicon is a subsidiary of Yingli, which mainly produces silicon materials. In addition, according to the plan, Yingli will also establish a 3000-ton electronic-grade silicon material production project in Hainan by 2013. According to the above sources, Yingli's silicon production is currently only 1,000 tons. If both projects reach 6,000 tons, the photovoltaic power generation cost will be greatly reduced. In addition, the conversion rate of solar cells is also critical. At present, Yingli's single crystal silicon and polycrystalline silicon solar cells have conversion rates of 19.89% and 18%, respectively. This is the highest conversion rate currently used for commercial production of these two types of solar cells. According to estimates, for every one percentage point increase in solar cell conversion efficiency, power generation costs can be reduced by about 7%. Meng Xianyu said that if the principle of reasonable cost + reasonable profit is adopted, it is still difficult for the photovoltaic industry to reduce the cost of power generation to less than 1 yuan per kWh. "Companies like Yingli are few after all. However, after efforts, some leading enterprises in 2012 can basically realize the cost of power generation to less than 1 yuan." The need to introduce on-grid tariffs, although the goal of photovoltaic installations is increasing rapidly, and the cost of power generation is rapidly declining. The domestic PV market is expected to start on a large scale, but there are still many obstacles in this market launch process. "Policy support is the key, and the on-grid price is the key to the key." Meng Xianyu pointed out that there is no PV feed-in tariff in China, and only the concession bidding is prone to some problems. "The first is that the concession bidding process is complicated and slow, and it is not possible to exploit the domestic market on a large scale. Second, there is no fixed on-grid tariff, which means that there is no game rule, and investors cannot operate at reasonable cost and profit." Therefore, he suggested that the country should introduce a reasonable on-grid tariff policy as soon as possible. The problem of "the lag in the on-grid tariff policy" mentioned by Meng Xianyu has been criticized by the industry for a long time. The call for this policy has also been rising with the delay of the domestic market. Experts pointed out that access to the power grid and operational management is also an urgent problem to be solved. "The policies supporting photovoltaic development are closely linked. The government must have a department to coordinate and coordinate." The expert said that the current "Golden Sun" project policy has many political issues, involving the Ministry of Finance, the National Energy Administration, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development. The four ministries and commissions, including the Ministry of Science and Technology, have led to a poor management system. "Photovoltaic can no longer take the old road of wind power." The expert said that although China has been the world's number one in terms of fan production and total installed capacity, but because the domestic market management system has not been straightened out, wind power off-site accidents frequently occur, a large number Wind power cannot be absorbed. "For this phenomenon, we must take the lead." Li Shengmao believes that the large-scale launch of the domestic PV market is inseparable from the support of the government departments. At this stage, the primary task of the government department is to introduce a scientific and reasonable price of photovoltaic Internet access. Let the investors of the photovoltaic power plants have a reasonable return on investment. Secondly, at this stage, the government departments should steadily advance the “Golden Sun†project so that it can truly exert its demonstration effect. Finally, the government departments should proactively address the problem of photovoltaic power generation difficulties that may be faced after the surge in photovoltaic power generation.