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The question now is whether the current recovery is short-term or trending in the context of uncertain international and domestic environmental factors. On this issue, many experts interviewed by the “First Financial Daily†showed great differences.
On the one hand, there is a view that the economic bottoming policy effect has begun to appear, and the future economy will enter a more stable track; while the other side believes that China faces more predictable and unpredictable risks, if the follow-up policies are not strong enough. At any time, it is possible to fall into a downturn again. But on the whole, experts interviewed by China Business News Daily generally said that the current signs of recovery are not fundamentally stable, but more of a policy effect. The endogenous dynamics of the economy itself remain to be seen.
The consensus of most respondents is that the macro data released next month has important reference significance for the future economic trend. This is mainly because the first two months of this year are greatly affected by the Spring Festival factor, and the reference meaning is small. In addition, after the release of economic data in March, the economic performance of the first quarter was clear, which is more conducive to judging the medium-term trend.
At the same time, relevant personnel of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the China Railway Corporation and other departments and enterprises have recently emphasized the adequacy of the policy "ammunition" in an interview with this newspaper. Some officials said: "There are many problems, but there are more ways. The current policy reserves have taken into account many factors."
High-level intensive voices in March high-end conferences and forums intensive, high-level leaders have expressed their optimism about the Chinese economy, so that the market has more confidence.
At the Prime Minister's press conference during the two sessions of the National People's Congress, Premier Li Keqiang said that when he talked about China's economic indicators, "it is impossible to complete the major economic goals that have been determined." Since then, at the Boao Forum for Asia, he once again stressed that “once the economic operation slips out of a reasonable range, we will also take comprehensive measures in accordance with economic lawsâ€.
In expounding China's economic situation, Li Keqiang said that from a holistic perspective, the economic operation is still in a reasonable range and new positive changes have emerged; from the trend, the pace of industrial upgrading has accelerated, and consumption and service industries have become the main force driving the economy; See, China needs space, development has resilience, innovation has means, long-term good fundamentals will not change.
Also at the China Development High-Level Forum held in March, Zhang Gaoli, the vice premier of the State Council, was "spoiled": the Chinese economy will be able to achieve a good start in the first quarter.
Zhang Gaoli said that in January, February and early March of this year, major economic indicators are developing in a good direction, such as electricity consumption, electricity consumption, employment, investment in fixed assets, fiscal revenue, disposable income of urban and rural residents, and currency. The supply is improving.
At the same time, the heads of important departments also voiced and sent confidence to the market.
Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan expressed confidence in the RMB exchange rate at the China Development Forum. In response to the decline in foreign exchange reserves, he said that when China's foreign exchange reserves rose sharply, the speed was also very fast. "There is a little more going out now, and it has passed after a while."
Hu Zucai, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the Boao Forum for Asia that while China's growth rate shifts, the economic development mode is accelerating, the economic structure is continuously optimized, and the development momentum is accelerating and changing. At the same time, reform and opening up have also released new vitality for development.
In addition, a number of institutions have expressed confidence in the economic outlook by adjusting and publishing economic growth forecasts. In the research report announced by the company, CICC raised its forecast for China's nominal GDP growth rate in 2016 from the previous 7% to 7.5%. The Economic Development Research Group of the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently released the "NAES Macroeconomic Situation Analysis and Forecast", saying that the bottom-line policy was effective in the first quarter, and the economy was stable and stable. The economy will basically stabilize in the second quarter.
The above-mentioned report of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicts that the economic growth rate in the first quarter will be around 6.7%. Affected by the factors of fiscal and monetary policy, the possibility of stable economic growth is relatively high. It is expected that GDP growth will remain at around 6.8% in the second quarter.
Increased signal to good <br> In addition to the decision-making layer constantly giving the market a "reassuring", from the data released in the past two months, various economically good signals appear intensively in a "super-expected" situation.
On March 12, the industrial production data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that from January to February 2016, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points from December 2015. However, high-tech industries and emerging products that meet the direction of consumption upgrading still maintain rapid growth. Among them, aviation, spacecraft and equipment manufacturing, electronics and communication equipment manufacturing and information chemicals manufacturing grew by 27.5%, 12.1% and 21.1% respectively; sports multi-purpose passenger vehicles (SUVs), smartphones and industries The robots increased by 60.4%, 18.6% and 17.7% respectively.
Some analysts judged that the industrial production in March will be better than the previous two months based on data such as steel and electricity consumption in March.
Investment also showed a relatively obvious stabilization. From January to February, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 10.2% year-on-year, which was the same as that of the fourth quarter of last year. It is worth noting that the manufacturing investment structure continues to improve. Among them, equipment manufacturing investment increased by 11.3% year-on-year, the growth rate was 1.1 percentage points higher than that of last year; consumer goods manufacturing investment increased by 11.9% year-on-year, 4.4 percentage points higher than all manufacturing investment growth; high energy-consuming manufacturing investment year-on-year It fell by 2.5%, but it was zero growth last year.
It is worth noting that the rise in consumer prices has picked up and the deflation in the production sector has shown signs of improvement. In February, CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and hit a 19-month high. In February, the PPI fell by 4.9% year-on-year, the decline was 0.4 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, and it rose to -5% or more for the first time in the past eight months.
At the same time, from January to February, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 780.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. The increase in total profit has turned from negative to positive, breaking the decline in 2015.
According to institutional research, from the data since 2013, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises is consistent with the trend of GDP growth. It is inferred that the rebound in industrial enterprise profit growth in the first two months of this year may suggest that GDP growth in the first quarter is expected to be better than that. expected.
Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications, said that the current economic operation is undergoing subtle changes. Among them, the rebound in real estate investment exceeding expectations is conducive to promoting investment to stabilize and rebound; the total investment in new construction and construction projects is rebounding sharply, indicating that the growth of infrastructure investment will rise in the future; the increase in credit growth indicates that the demand for the real economy has rebounded significantly; M1 and M2 have formed inverted scissors. It shows that the economic activity has rebounded; the profits of industrial enterprises have recovered positively; the deflation situation is improving. The economy is stabilizing.
Stabilization still needs to be recruited <br> Although there are many signs of recovery in the Chinese economy, it is still controversial whether this really means stabilizing. Many analysts said that the current warmth is more a reflection of the policy effect, but also to wait for more data to be released as a basis for research and judgment, and follow-up policy support is still indispensable.
Yu Pingkang, chief economist of Changjiang Pension Insurance, said that this year he will continue to pay attention to the issue of stable growth and restructuring. The reason is that fixed asset investment continues to decline. The endogenous growth momentum of manufacturing still needs to be improved. Real estate investment growth rate is nearly two months. There are signs of a small stabilization, but the sustainability is insufficient. Therefore, the pressure on the entire economy is still large.
Yu Pingkang said that from the current investment and industrial added value judgment, the economic downturn will continue, and it is expected that at least the end of the second quarter of the second quarter will be more reliable signs of stabilization.
Jiang Chao, chief macro analyst of Haitong Securities, also said that production is still shrinking and demand is improving in the short term, and continued to go to stock or is nearing completion. The economy has improved in the short term, but the sustainability of this improvement remains questionable.
The hidden dangers in the process of China's economic operation cannot be ignored. Many organizations have mentioned that there are still many potential risks in the Chinese economy, and there is no clear policy deployment at present. In addition, in the context of increased external uncertainty, the risk of China's financial currency is also worthy of attention.
On the whole, the view that the policy needs to continue to increase the code to help the economy stabilize is still in the mainstream. For example, the aforementioned Chinese Academy of Social Sciences reported that it should continue to deepen supply-side structural reforms, innovate macro-control methods, and increase efforts to expand domestic demand so that economic operations remain within a reasonable range of medium-to-high-speed growth. The report proposes to launch a number of reform plans with strong efforts and grounding in the areas of region, industry, state-owned enterprises, finance and taxation, finance, people's livelihood, openness, and population management.
Summary Today is the last day of March. This month's high-end conferences and forums were extremely intensive, giving the market more opportunities to hear the voice of the decision-making level. Combined with good data in the first two months of this year, the Chinese economy feels more and more warm in this spring. The problem now is,...
Today is the last day of March. This month's high-end conferences and forums were extremely intensive, giving the market more opportunities to hear the voice of the decision-making level. Combined with good data in the first two months of this year, the Chinese economy feels more and more warm in this spring.