In November, China’s PMI was 49%, and the first time was 50% within 32 months.

In November 2011, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) issued by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing was 49.0%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous month.

In November 2011, China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released China's manufacturing PMI of 49.0%

In November 2011, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) issued by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing was 49.0%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. This month, the PMI fell back to 50% for the first time since March 2009, indicating that the economic growth rate will continue to decline. However, judging from a variety of factors, it is expected that the economic growth rate will remain stable in the future, and there is little risk of large fluctuations.

From the 11 sub-indices, compared with the previous month, only the finished goods inventory index and import index rose by 2.8 and 0.3 percentage points respectively; the other indexes all fell back, among which the new order index and the new export order index fell. The magnitude is larger, more than 2 percentage points, and all fall back to 50%.

In the 20 industries this month, tobacco industry, transportation equipment manufacturing, petroleum processing and coking industry reached more than 50%; agricultural and sideline food processing and food manufacturing, communications equipment computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing, 10 industries such as non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry are less than 50%. From the product type, the consumer goods category enterprises are higher than 50%; the raw materials and energy, intermediate goods and production finished goods enterprises are less than 50%.

In response to the survey of manufacturing purchasing managers in November, special analyst Zhang Liqun said: "The PMI index continued to fall in November, which is already below 50%. The economic boom has turned from expansion to contraction, indicating that China's economic growth rate will continue to fall in the future. The decline in product orders and purchase price index reflects the overall decline in market demand. The difficulty in production and operation of enterprises may shift from cost increase to insufficient orders. As domestic investment growth remains at a high level, consumption growth has stabilized slightly, so the future economic growth rate will be adjusted back. It is expected to be relatively stable and there will be no major decline."

The new order index fell back to less than 50%. This month's new order index was 47.8%, down 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, the tobacco industry, petroleum processing and coking industry, clothing and footwear manufacturing and fur and down products industries are more than 50%; chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, general equipment manufacturing, communication equipment computers and 13 industries such as other electronic equipment manufacturing industries are less than 50%. From the perspective of product types, consumer goods companies are above 50%; raw materials and energy, intermediate goods and manufacturing manufactured goods are less than 50%.

The production index has slowed down. The production index for this month was 50.9%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, 11 industries including tobacco products, transportation equipment manufacturing, clothing and footwear manufacturing and fur and down products are higher than 50%; communication equipment computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing, general equipment manufacturing, and agricultural vice 9 industries such as food processing and food manufacturing are less than 50%. In terms of product types, raw materials and energy, intermediate goods companies are less than 50%; consumer goods and production finished goods companies are higher than 50%.

The import index rose slightly, and the new export order index continued to decline. The new export order index for this month was 45.6%, down 3.0 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, wood processing and furniture manufacturing, clothing and footwear manufacturing and fur and down products, beverage manufacturing, agricultural and sideline food processing and food manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, transportation equipment manufacturing industry are higher than 50 %, the rest of the industry is below 50%.

The import index for this month was 47.3%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, the petroleum processing and coking industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, clothing and footwear manufacturing and fur down products, tobacco products industry are higher than 50%; the rest of the industry are lower than 50%.

The finished goods inventory index rose. The finished goods inventory index for this month was 53.1%, up 2.8 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, 13 industries including general equipment manufacturing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, textiles, wood processing and furniture manufacturing are higher than 50%; petroleum processing and coking, pharmaceutical manufacturing, beverage manufacturing, etc. Seven industries are below 50%. In terms of product types, raw materials and energy, intermediate goods, consumer goods and manufactured goods are all above 50%.

The purchase price index continued to fall. The purchase price index for this month was 44.4%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, the five industries of wood processing and furniture manufacturing, tobacco products, clothing and footwear manufacturing and fur and down products, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and non-metallic mineral products are higher than 50%, and the rest of the industries are below 50%. . In terms of product types, raw materials and energy, intermediate goods, consumer goods and manufactured goods are all below 50%.

Table November 2011 manufacturing PMI indicator (%)

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Description

The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager survey extracted 820 sample companies from national manufacturing companies and conducted a monthly survey of corporate purchasing managers.

The scope of the investigation involves 28 major categories of manufacturing in the National Economic Industry Classification (GB/T4754-2002), and each industry allocates sample enterprises according to their scale.

The questionnaire covered 11 issues including production volume, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase volume, import, purchase price, raw material inventory, employees, and supplier delivery time. The diffusion index is calculated separately for each question, which is the percentage of the number of companies that are responding positively plus half of the percentage of the answer.

PMI is a composite index calculated by weighting five diffusion indices (category indices). The five sub-indices and their weights are based on their prior impact on the economy. Specifically, it includes: new order index, weight is 30%; production index, weight is 25%; employee index, weight is 20%; supplier delivery time index, weight is 15%; raw material inventory index, right The number is 10%.

PMI is one of the internationally accepted macroeconomic monitoring indicator systems and plays an important role in monitoring and forecasting national economic activities. Usually 50% is the cut-off point of economic strength, PMI is higher than 50%, reflecting the expansion of the manufacturing economy; below 50% reflects the manufacturing recession.