Post-holiday aluminum rod stocks will again be a new high to guard against falling processing costs

It is recalled that Guangdong aluminum rod processing fees experienced a process from advancing to adversity and ups and downs in 2016. Taking the model 120 aluminum rod price as an example, the processing fee in the first half of the year was maintained at a range of 310-460, and the price range expanded substantially in the second half of the year. The lowest price range was 100 yuan for the average price of the southern reserve, and the highest was 1100 yuan for the average price of the southern reserve. yuan.

The extreme market experience of aluminum rod processing fees in the second half of 2016 was mainly affected by supply and demand. At the beginning of November, due to the high base price of around 15,000, under the lure of high profits, traders who had previously sold the goods were actively throwing goods and the market was flooded. However, high prices have suppressed downstream demand, the market has been poorly traded, and aluminum ingots have become more competitive. Traders tend to throw aluminum rods to buy aluminum ingots. In the case of oversupply of the market, the processing fee for aluminum rods has continued to fall to the premium. In the later period, due to the re-entry of transportation, the negotiation process of aluminum water prices in Xinjiang was not smooth. At the end of November, some aluminum rod plants stopped production, aluminum rod output declined, and the environmental protection team moved to Guangdong. Most of the re-melting rod plants stopped production and further stimulated. The demand for aluminum water rods has caused the stock of aluminum rods in public warehouses to fall to more than 6,000 tons. The market is in short supply, which drives prices to keep on reaching new heights.

In terms of demand in 2017, after some downstream manufacturers and traders in Guangdong experienced a hard-to-find situation, the signing of the long list in 2017 will increase. According to the Nancun Business Network, it is known that some northwestern aluminum rod makers have expressed that the long-term single-barrel intent price will be sent to or around +100 from the average price of the Yangtze River, while Guangdong traders will indicate that the long-term order-out intention price is equivalent to the South Reserve. The price is around +450 (that is, the average price of the Yangtze River is around +590).

On the supply side, Guangdong’s big cake is increasingly attractive, and some upstream aluminum rod makers are interested in exploring or expanding this market. According to previous years' data, during the Spring Festival of the 16th year, the public warehouse inventory increased by 1600 tons to 16,000 tons, and the inventory rose quickly to about 55,000 tons in the next month or so, creating a record high for public warehouse inventory; according to the survey of the Nanchu Business Network, including private warehouses. For sixteen years, the actual stock of aluminum rods in Guangdong is at the level of 150,000 tons. In 17 years, it will be even better. According to research conducted in the Guangdong circulation brand, except for Gansu Zhongsheng, Tianyang and Yinguang, most of the remaining brands maintain production, and even some manufacturers have full production capacity. Guangdong public warehouse inventory has reached 25,000 tons, far more than the same period in 16 years, after the holiday concentrated arrival, public warehouse inventory will hit a record high. During the period from the Spring Festival to the Lantern Festival, the market demand will be relatively weak. In the case of supply exceeding demand, it is necessary to guard against further reduction of the processing fee.