Solve the imbalance between supply and demand to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the chemical industry

According to relevant data, in the third quarter of 2012, China’s domestic chemical industry continued its downward trend, with both the economy and the early-warning index falling for four consecutive quarters, of which the prosperity index was 98, down 0.5 points from the previous quarter, and the early warning index consisted of The normal "green zone" went down to a colder "light blue zone" operation.

Compared with the previous quarters, there was a clear difference in the prosperity index before and after the chemical industry eliminated the random factors in the third quarter. After the elimination, the business climate index was even lower, at 96.9, which was a faster decline than the previous period, down 1.5 points. This situation shows that: Since the second quarter, the state has successively introduced a number of "steady-growth" macro-control policies, including rate cuts, RRR cuts, structural tax cuts, acceleration of key project approvals, and expansion of consumer subsidies for energy-saving products, etc., for the industry in the third quarter The operation has had a positive impact, which has, to a certain extent, improved the industry's prosperity and slowed down the rate of decline of the economy. However, at present, the policy effect has not yet fundamentally changed the situation of the weak operation of the industry.

At present, the chemical industry is facing more severe difficulties since the financial crisis. From the causes analysis, the imbalance between supply and demand is still the main reason. Since the beginning of this year, the international economy has experienced difficult windings, the domestic economy has continued to slow down, and in the complex and grim domestic and foreign situations, the demand for the chemical industry market, especially the demand for synthetic materials, basic chemical raw materials, etc., which are closely related to industrial investment, textiles, and garments, has been long. There has been no major change, and the situation of foreign demand is also not optimistic. In contrast to the sluggish demand, the supply of market resources is generally adequate. Under the gradual release of new production capacity, the industry’s production has basically maintained a stable growth, coupled with the unabated import shocks. Various factors have jointly led to imbalances in the domestic chemical market, prices have fallen, and profits decline.

In the next stage, whether the industry can emerge from the predicament depends on whether macroeconomics and industry demand can be restored. On the other hand, it depends on the industry's ability to control quantity in terms of supply, optimize the structure, and reasonably control the cost expenditure to improve profitability. . At present, the overall market expects that with the further development of policy effects and the new pre-adjustment and fine-tuning policies will continue to be introduced, the domestic economy will be expected to stabilize in the fourth quarter, which will lead to a recovery in demand in the chemical industry, but due to the international economy still There is no optimism that there is a greater probability that the external demand market will continue to decline. Therefore, in the short term, it is difficult to expect the industry demand to change significantly. Faced with the current development situation, the industry should focus more on its own capacity building, accelerate the pace of industrial transformation and upgrading, improve the market adaptability and industry development level under low-speed growth level, and realize the development model from scale efficiency to quality and efficiency. change. To do this, we should do the following three tasks:

The first is to accelerate structural adjustment. Continue to adhere to the diversification of raw materials, integration of upstream and downstream, intensive, and base development models; develop high-end petrochemical chemical products, increase the proportion of differentiated, high value-added products, eliminate backward production capacity, optimize industrial layout, standardize industrial park construction, and accelerate mergers and acquisitions Reorganization to increase industrial concentration.

The second is to promote energy-saving and emission reduction. Develop recycling economy, promote clean production, increase energy conservation and emission reduction, promote new-type, high-efficiency, low-carbon energy-saving and water-saving technologies, actively explore the replacement of toxic and hazardous materials (products), increase the efficiency of comprehensive utilization of resources and energy, and reduce the generation of pollutants. emission.

The third is to improve the level of science and technology, especially to strengthen the technological transformation of enterprises at this stage. Based on existing enterprises and foundations, increase investment in technological transformation, accelerate the upgrading of new technologies, new materials, new processes, and new equipment, upgrade traditional industries, and promote the automation and transformation of fifteen dangerous chemical process equipments including catalyzed and nitrified. Hazard source supporting monitoring equipment and enterprise safety production standardization work. Accelerate the production of high-end products, increase core competitiveness, and promote industrial upgrading. Encourage enterprises to actively develop new products, increase technological content and added value, and improve the quality of varieties. Establish and improve technical standards, strengthen process control, improve inspection and inspection capabilities, promote the certification of advanced quality management methods and quality management systems, and promote the implementation of key product quality standards.

In addition, we must pay close attention to the continued high investment growth in the chemical industry. The domestic chemical industry is basically a market-oriented operation. In addition, the technical content of some chemical projects is relatively low, investment funds are relatively small, and entry barriers are relatively low. In recent years, with the rapid growth of China's economy, some companies have grown rapidly with strong adaptability, but at the macro level, they are looking at the overcapacity, energy conservation, emission reduction, and industrial restructuring that the industry currently faces. Chemical companies must adjust their investment direction, such as suggesting that relevant companies invest in high-end new materials and other emerging fields.

At present, China is in the middle and early stages of industrialization. The rapid development of urbanization poses a large-scale demand for energy and raw materials. The demand for new products that are close to the end consumer sector will grow much faster than that of basic products. The rapid economic development will promote the new high-end chemical materials. Chemicals (including organic silicon, organic chlorine, engineering plastics and plastic alloys, nano-materials, functional polymer materials, etc.), bio-chemicals, new energy, energy-saving and environmental protection, and other strategic emerging industries provide a variety of markets, marketable, and additional High-end high-end chemical products. However, due to the constraints of technology, new chemical materials are the areas with the lowest self-sufficiency rate and the most urgent need for development. Chemical companies should closely follow the progress of new technologies and new products in the field of fine chemicals and new materials, increase investment in this area, advance into the development and testing stage, actively introduce high-level foreign technologies, and develop high-end petrochemical products. At the same time, relevant government departments should formulate clear policies for high-tech product investment and promote the transformation of chemical companies into technology-based companies.