Steel City pessimistically threatens to next year

"Ordering tears, selling goods have become **, the leadership is meeting every day, in fact, the meeting is in vain."

Recently, many steel people received such an interesting text message on their mobile phones. Zhang Jianfeng, the chief analyst of China's steel industry, told China Business News that this reflects the hesitation of some people.

With the in-depth control of real estate, a wave of decline since September has caused heavy losses for steel companies, especially steel trading companies. This pessimistic atmosphere may even continue into next year.

“At present, China’s steel consumption is at its peak, and the largest market is the best period. The periodical fluctuations are not enough to make us lose confidence in the entire industry.” Yan Xiujun, General Manager of Hebei Iron & Steel (000709, stock bar) Group Sales Corporation Tell the newspaper.

Wang Baoxiang, deputy general manager of Beixin Building Materials (000786), told this newspaper that due to the weakening of international and domestic demand, the price of the steel market will be in a declining trend.

Chen Kexin, a senior expert in the expert team at the Lange Steel Information Research Center, believes that the worst situation in the export trade has not yet arrived. The International Monetary Union's downward adjustment of the world economic growth by 0.5% in 2012 will reduce the global trade volume by 3 to 4 percentage points. It is expected that the export situation in China in the first quarter and the first half of next year will be even more severe in 2012.

In his view, the worst situation in the real estate situation has not arrived yet. According to the latest statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, the new real estate start-up area and investment in October have begun to decline significantly. Some people think that the year-on-year growth of real estate investment in 2012 will see a steep fall.

As the real estate industry is involved in a wide range, affecting dozens of major industries in China, affecting nearly 60% of end-use consumer goods, real estate investment and construction area is seriously shrinking, superimposed with the export downturn effect, and other aspects of consumer spending such as automobile restrictions, When several major engines stall at the same time, they may become the final blow to the Chinese "hard landing."

“Although this worst situation may not necessarily have occurred, its risk has not completely disappeared.” Chen Kexin believes that in the near term, due to the panic atmosphere triggered by the European debt crisis and the risk of a “hard landing” of the Chinese economy has not completely subsided, the steel market is still Weaknesses will run, and we cannot rule out the deterioration of the European debt crisis and the diving of the Chinese real estate market. Together, we may oppress the new round of decline in steel prices, even reaching or approaching the level of the 2008 financial crisis.

At the same time, he believes that as the negative factors are exhausted, in the long term, Lido gradually takes a dominant position, especially the global inflation caused by unconventional debt reduction, which will promote the rebound of steel market temperatures, which will oscillate upwards and exceed the historical highs of the previous period.

Under the pessimistic atmosphere, Wang Wenhong, chairman of Zhengzhou Jinhai Materials Co., Ltd., believes that next year's steel companies, including steel traders, may need to reshuffle their cards.