2017 annual economic data will announce the opening of high quality development drama

The macroeconomic data for 2017 will be released on January 18th (this Thursday), when GDP growth, industry, investment, real estate and other related data will be unveiled.

Regarding GDP growth, the official has been spoiled. A few days ago, Premier Li Keqiang said in the second meeting of the leaders of the Lancang-Mekong River cooperation in Cambodia that the Chinese economy has maintained a steady and good development trend in the past year. The overall situation is better than expected, and the annual gross domestic product ( GDP) is expected to grow by about 6.9%.

Li Keqiang said that in the past year, the unemployment rate in urban counties in China has been the lowest in years; the import and export has reversed the decline for two consecutive years; the fiscal revenue, household income and corporate benefits have improved significantly; the bond market, the stock market and the housing market have been running smoothly. Foreign exchange reserves continued to increase, and corporate leverage ratios were stable and declining.

Since last year, China’s economic performance has exceeded expectations. Ning Jiyu, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said in Beijing on the 13th that from January to November last year, China’s overall macroeconomic output and demand were generally stable, employment continued to improve, and the structure was continuously optimized. The economy is stable and stable, and it is better than expected.

The report of the 19th National Congress pointed out that China has shifted from a high-speed development stage to a high-quality development stage. The quality of China's current economic development continues to improve.

From the perspective of industrial profits, from January to November 2017, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 21.9%. Although the growth rate of industrial profits has slowed down in November, overall, the benefits of industrial enterprises have continued to improve since 2017.

In terms of residents' income, in the first three quarters of 2017, the per capita disposable income of the national residents was 19,342 yuan, a nominal increase of 9.1% year-on-year; the actual increase of 7.5% after deducting the price factor, the growth rate was 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. The per capita income of urban and rural residents was 2.81, a decrease of 0.01 from the same period of the previous year.

From the perspective of prices, the 2017 National Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Industrial Producer Ex-factory Price Index (PPI) data show that the CPI rose by 1.6%, a 0.4 percentage point drop from 2016, and completed the government work report. The proposed “consumption consumer price rose by about 3%” regulation target; PPI rose by 6.3%, ending the five-year decline since 2012.

From the perspective of new kinetic energy and new industries, from January to November 2017, the added value of high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 13.5% and 11.4% respectively, and the growth rate was 6.9 and 4.8 percentage points faster than that of industrial enterprises above designated size. The year-on-year growth was 68.8%, and new energy vehicles increased by 46.5%.

The Chinese economy can have such a good performance. Li Keqiang attributed it to "We insist on not engaging in the strong stimulation of the 'big water flooding', focusing on the supply-side structural reform, constantly innovating and improving macro-control, and vigorously cultivating new development momentum."

Zhu Baoliang, chief economist and director of economic forecasting department of China National Information Center, proposed last month at the annual meeting of the country. 2018 is the first year for China to improve the quality of economic growth. More efforts should be made from economic quality to solve China's fundamental problems. The core is reform, and it must be unswervingly advanced.

Zhu Baoliang said that the Chinese economy emphasizes four "strictnesses" this year: First, finance must be strictly regulated, and strict financial supervision and financial and monetary policies should cooperate to prevent liquidity risks. Second, local governments must strictly control their debts. Local borrowing should “block the back door and open the front door” and allow local governments to issue some debts. Third, the strict regulation of real estate must strengthen the long-term mechanism of real estate, and it must be strictly regulated in the short term. Fourth, the standards for environmental protection are strict, and environmental protection must strictly implement various environmental protection policies.

Wang Jun, a member of the Academic Committee of the China International Economic Exchange Center, told the First Financial Reporter that the Chinese economy in the new era must achieve the goal of economic transformation much faster than the growth rate of GDP. China's structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, and institutional reforms are still not over, and they continue to push and show positive results. The drama of China's high-quality development has just begun.