Chinese iron ore prices will show a short-term downward trend

After two months of trial operation, the China Iron and Steel Association officially announced to the public for the first time in the world the first week of October of the Chinese Iron Ore Price Index (CIOPI). As the price of iron ore is still relatively high relative to steel, and at the same time, the risk of iron ore inventory accumulation is increasing. It is expected that the iron ore price will fall in the short term.

According to the news, according to the ore index released by the China Iron and Steel Association for the first time, due to the National Day holiday, there are no major transactions in domestic iron ore in the first week of October, so there is no domestic iron ore price index statistics. However, the domestic iron ore price index for the last week of September was 455.81 points, with an average price of 1,172.87 yuan per ton, and the CIOPI China iron ore price index for the last week of September was 580.73 points.

The imported iron ore price index was 652.41 points, a decrease of 0.13 points compared with the previous month, a decrease of 0.02%. The average cif price of imported iron ore was US$176.22/ton, a drop of US$0.03/ton from the previous quarter, and the tax-inclusive price was RMB 1,301.21/ton, a decrease of RMB 0.26 per ton.

“CIOPI is basically the same as other ore indexes that have already been operating.” According to sources at Jintong Bao, due to the fact that both domestically produced mines and imported ore can be reflected in both markets, the coverage of data collection samples is over 90%, and the samples The collection scope covers iron ore price data of different grades and technical grades. At present, the index has been considered by the industry as a move for China to compete for iron ore right to speak.

However, in spite of this, the price of imported iron ore in China is still maintained at a high level and the risks involved are very high. According to statistics from Jitongbao, the reporter found that from January to August 2011, China increased iron production by 39.972 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, of which 31.83 million tons was produced due to the increase of 22.7% in domestic iron ore ore production, which accounted for the increase in total iron production. In 80.23% of the total, the remaining 7.84 million tons of pig iron will still need to be imported 12.55 million tons of iron ore.

However, in fact, from January to August this year, the import of iron ore increased by 42.538 million tons, an increase of 10.5%, and more than 2999 million tons were imported. As of the end of August, the stockpiles of iron ore in China's major ports totaled 95.21 million tons, an increase of 23.41 million tons year-on-year, and the risk of inventory accumulation was increasing.

“At present, domestic steel prices have reached new lows during the year, but iron ore prices have fallen relatively less and prices are still at relatively high levels. Many steel mills are already in a state of loss.” Lagging will inevitably cause steel companies to lower the purchase price of raw materials and reduce the number of purchases. It is expected that the iron ore price will fall in the short term."