Refined oil prices are expected to increase by 400-500 yuan per ton

After the national “**”, the price increase of refined oil has once again become the focus. According to the agency's monitoring data, conditions for the price increase of refined oil have long been met, and the rate of price adjustment will be relatively high. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission may fine-tune the refined oil price mechanism at the same time to regulate market behavior.

It is expected that the higher price per ton of 400-500 yuan will be widely forecast by market participants. The price increase of refined oil will be in the range of RMB 400-500/ton, which is the larger one in recent years.

The recent large increase in international crude oil is considered to be the main reason for pushing up refined oil prices. According to the domestic "22 days +4%" pricing mechanism for refined oil products, domestic refined oil prices are linked to international crude oil prices in Brent, Dubai and Xinta. As of the close of March 15, despite slight declines, Brent crude oil still closed at the high point of 123.55 US dollars/barrel. Another benchmark WTI crude oil of international crude oil was also monitored by An Xun Siwang Energy. As early as February 23, it broke the 4% mark for the first time, and on March 8 it met another adjustment condition of “22 days”. This means that as early as March 8, the price adjustment window has been opened. Its latest monitoring results indicate that as of March 15, the rate of change in the three places was as high as 10.88%.

Yao Daming, minister of the oil division of the Guangdong Petroleum Chamber of Commerce, said that the critical conditions for price adjustment of refined oil products have been reached and that the price adjustment is estimated to be introduced after the “**”. It is expected that the domestic oil prices will rise for the second time in mid-March.

As for the price adjustment, Shen Tao, a product oil analyst at Zhongyu Information, predicts that the price adjustment may be in the range of 400-500 yuan/ton, which is also the mainstream view in the market.

Some of the main units in Guangdong began to control sales because the conditions for price adjustment have been met earlier, the market is fully expected to increase prices, and manufacturers are reluctant to sell their mentality.

According to the recent monitoring results of the Xinhua 08 market, the current domestic prices of gasoline and diesel have risen steadily. The prices of gasoline and diesel in various markets have remained high, gasoline has basically been linked to retail price limits, and diesel has begun to be controlled in first-tier cities in China. It is understood that at present, Sinopec, PetroChina (10.27, -0.03, -0.29%) and other major units of gasoline and diesel promotions are basically canceled.

In the Guangdong gasoline market, some of the main units have taken measures to control sales and suspended large sales during the week. According to the latest monitoring, Sinopec currently maintains high prices and stability. Zhongshan, Maoming and other places have suspended shipments from overseas. Small quantities have been shipped in other regions. PetroChina has increased the wholesale price of gasoline yesterday, but large orders can be applied for a discount of 50 yuan/ton.

Or the standard ton conversion coefficient was reported by the media the day before yesterday. The National Development and Reform Commission recently issued a form of oil price collection to Sinopec and PetroChina. Therefore, the reform measures introduced along with the price adjustment will not be the highly acclaimed "shortening the price adjustment cycle, adjusting the affiliated oil" and other content. It is reported that at the same time of the price adjustment, the National Development and Reform Commission plans to fine-tune the refined oil price mechanism, that is, regulate the conversion coefficient of gasoline and diesel ton.

An Xun Sixiwang energy analyst Liao Kailu said that in previous price adjustments, the National Development and Reform Commission only announced the retail price of tons of products in various places. The retail price increase and the wholesale price limit price were issued by local commodity price bureaus because The conversion coefficient is different, which results in a large gap between the actual retail value of the ton price and the price rise in some regions.

In actual operation, the price of price increase is mostly higher than the price of ton, especially in the southern market. In the past two years, the main units have often adopted price-raising sales methods in the market, and the price of sales has changed. Retail tons price. "The above behavior may be greatly converging." Liao Kaiyi expects.

After fine-tuning, the National Development and Reform Commission may only announce the price increase for gasoline and diesel in the future, but the provision of tonnage must be translated according to the nationally-reconciled conversion factor. The National Development and Reform Commission is seeking opinions on the coefficient issue. According to market analysts, the specification of the ton-up rate factor helps to regulate the market and prevent local disguised price increases.