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Since the bottom of February this year, coal prices have been in a steady and rising trend. In November, due to the weather, Qinhuangdao coal prices accelerated and continued to hit a new high this year. According to statistics, as of December 11, the coal storage in Qinhuangdao port dropped to 6.45 million tons, down by 8.4 million tons from the beginning of the month, down 11.5%. The coal market continued to be tight, and the coal price of Qinhuangdao Port increased sharply. Among them, 6,000 kcal thermal coal was 750 yuan/ton last week, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the increase was as high as 5.6%, a new high. The price of thermal coal hit a new high in the year. The price of Shanxi high-mixed coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 730-740 yuan per ton, up 6.8%-8.1% from the previous month.
Regarding the driving force of rising coal prices, institutional researchers generally believe that the strong recovery of the real economy has caused the recent tight supply and demand in the market, which has led to the rise in coal prices. Therefore, it is optimistic about the trend of coal prices in 2010 and forecast the average price next year. Will rise by 5% -10%.
Xu Zhe, a researcher at Southwest Securities, pointed out that this year, the macroeconomic sentiment index rebounded significantly. The leading indicator has been higher than the consensus index for 10 consecutive months, and has consistently hit a new high this year. The PMI index has also been higher than 50 for 9 consecutive months in the macro economy. Under the premise of good turn, coal demand is growing. Moreover, the safety accidents in Shanxi coal mines continued, the integration intensity increased, and the resumption of production of small coal mines was lower than expected, which made the situation of oversupply eased and improved in the supply and demand situation. Moreover, now in the winter, heating supports the growth of coal demand. In addition, the continuous rise in international energy prices has supported domestic coal price expectations.
He believes that next year, with the continued recovery of the real economy, coal demand and prices will continue to rise, and the average price is expected to rise by 5%-10%. Regarding inflation expectations, Xu Zhe said that this has little effect on coal price trends.
At present, the coal-electricity linkage mechanism implemented in China is in a coal-electricity price linkage cycle of not less than 6 months in principle. If the average e-mining price of coal is more than 5% or more than the previous period, On the basis of 30% self-digestion, the company adjusts the electricity price accordingly. Next year, coal price increases are expected to be so large. According to the coal-electricity linkage mechanism, electricity prices will also face upward pressure next year.
In this regard, Guodu Securities Liu Fei said that so far, coal-electricity linkage mechanism is often not able to start on time. At startup, or time delay, or the price of electricity has not risen in place. Now that coal prices have been liberalized, electricity prices have not yet been liberalized. Therefore, the rise in coal prices should have little impact on coal-fired power linkages. (Author: Xia Qing)
Recently, coal prices in Qinhuangdao Port have continued to rise, and thermal coal prices have hit a new high for the year. Researchers generally believe that the recovery of the real economy and seasonal factors have led to an increase in demand, which has led to an increase in prices. This rising trend will continue until February next year. After that, the northern hemisphere will warm up in the season, and the price will decline and adjust slightly due to demand factors. The average price of coal will increase by 5%-10% for the whole year next year, but the impact on coal-electricity linkage will not be significant.