"Iron hand" environmental protection guides the natural gas power generation to welcome good

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to adjust the on-grid tariffs of power generation companies, reducing the on-grid tariffs of coal-fired power generation companies in 27 provinces and cities, and increasing the on-grid tariffs of natural gas for power generation in eight provinces and cities including Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Guangdong.

The reporter learned that the average on-grid tariff of domestic natural gas power generation companies is 0.78 yuan/kWh. After this price adjustment, the average on-grid tariff will be 0.82 yuan/kWh.

"Between one drop and one rise, its purpose is mainly to improve the environmental protection system, promote the reduction of power generation companies, and encourage the use of new energy," Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, told reporters.

With the development of smog and "coal to gas" advancement, natural gas power generation will usher in a new wave of investment. However, the reporter found during the interview that due to the lack of gas supply and the high cost of gas prices, the vast majority of gas-fired power plants operated by China are still in a state of loss or profit. If the problem cannot be solved, natural gas power generation can only be "losing money and making profits," and the road to industrialization is still difficult.

Gas power plant investment speed

Under the guidance of the “iron hand” environmental protection and rectification policy, we expect that China's gas power plant investment will enter a new stage.

Since the beginning of heating in Northeast China on October 20th, the severe haze weather that has engulfed the entire three provinces in East China has once again brought the attention of all walks of life to coal-fired pollution in China.

Subsequently, GE (General Electric Company) published a white paper entitled "China's Natural Gas Era: Innovation and Change in Energy Development," and it also used natural gas as an important "envoy" to protect the air. According to GE's research, at present, the total primary energy consumption of natural gas in China accounts for only 4%, and if it is to reach 8% by 2025, it will save five trillion yuan in environmental costs in 13 years. This means that the average annual savings of 380 billion yuan, accounting for about 0.5% of the annual GDP, the scale of the current total economic output of Qinghai Province, twice.

Corresponding to this, in the "Implementation Rules for the Implementation of the Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Neighboring Regions" issued by the Ministry of Environmental Protection in September, it is proposed that by the end of 2017, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei Province and Shandong Province will reduce the total coal consumption. The amount of 83 million tons. Among them, Beijing had a net reduction of 13 million tons of raw coal, a net reduction of 10 million tons in Tianjin, a net reduction of 40 million tons in Hebei, and a net reduction of 20 million tons in Shandong Province.

Taking Beijing as an example, the proportion of coal in energy consumption has been reduced to below 10%, and the share of high-quality energy such as electricity and natural gas has increased to more than 90%. The newly added natural gas should be given priority to the use of gas for residents and efficient use of distributed energy resources, as well as alternative coal-fired boilers, industrial kilns and self-contained power plants.

“Under the guidance of the “iron hand” environmental protection improvement policy, we expect China's gas power plant investment will enter a new stage.” Ma Ji, an analyst at Treasure Island gas industry, told reporters that there are currently about 50 gas power plants in China. Mainly located in areas such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, Fujian and other LNG receiving stations, and near gas sources. It is expected that more gas-fired power plants will be built in Beijing, Hebei, Tianjin, and even more provinces.

In addition, another good news about natural gas power generation is also released. On October 15, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Circular on Relevant Matters Concerning the Adjustment of Additional Energy Standards for Renewable Energy Prices and Environmental Protection Electricity Prices”. While downgrading the on-grid tariffs of coal-fired enterprises, it also proposed to “deligently contradict the price of gas-fired power generation in certain regions”. Natural gas power generation on-grid tariffs in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hainan, Henan, Hubei, Ningxia and other provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) have been raised.

The production enterprise is difficult to complain

The natural gas company's gas source is often limited and does not guarantee that the unit will operate at full capacity. In addition, due to the high cost of natural gas power generation, on-grid tariffs do not match costs.

“We have not received any notification of the increase in natural gas feed-in tariffs yet, and the specific increase is not clear.” On October 23, the person in charge of the Jiangsu Guosen Huai'an Gas Power Generation Company said in an interview that the company’s first-phase project The 2×180 megawatt-class gas turbine cogeneration project is the first gas-fired power generation project in northern Jiangsu. It was put into production in March 2012 and put into commercial operation.

It is understood that the gas source of Jiangsu Guoxin Huai'an Gas Power Generation Co., Ltd. comes from CNPC's “West-to-East Gas Transmission”, with an annual gas consumption of 500 million cubic meters. However, according to the person in charge, the company’s air supply was often restricted since it was put into operation in 2012, and it cannot guarantee that the unit will operate at full capacity. Not only that, Jiangsu's natural gas feed-in tariff is 0.581 yuan/kWh, but due to the high cost of natural gas power generation, on-grid tariffs do not match costs.

The person in charge disclosed that since the company was put into production, it has been at a loss, and it has not yet seen the dawn of profits.

“Our business pressure is also very large, and now companies are on the verge of losing money and micro-profits.” The same confusion also exists in a large-scale natural gas power plant in Guangdong. The person in charge of the power plant's production and operation department told reporters that the company’s first-phase project is It was put into commercial operation 6 years ago, but the profitability has deteriorated.

According to the person in charge, the air source used by the company was LNG imported from Australia. As early as 2002, the company signed a 25-year gas purchase contract with Australia. The gas price is relatively cheap, and the price per cubic meter. Less than 2 yuan. However, since 2012, international natural gas prices have risen, and Australian gas suppliers have unilaterally reduced the company's procurement gas for various reasons such as power outages, overhauls, and shutdowns.

“The current LNG market price has far exceeded the contract price we signed at the time, so the Australian side did not hesitate to limit the supply of gas to us.” The above-mentioned person in charge said that since 2013, the company has only received 1/2 of the contract's air supply. Due to the lack of additional gas supply, the company's gas turbines have only half of the planned operating hours in the first half of 2013.

Not only that, the person in charge of the plant in Guangdong said that unlike gas-fired power plants in Beijing and other places that can receive financial subsidies, the company does not have any subsidies other than importing natural gas rebates. Moreover, previous companies through the CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) originally through the sale of carbon indicators can get two or three million yuan in revenue every year, but since the international carbon trading stopped lagging since 2010, the company's revenue from this block is completely zero.

The person in charge said that from the most practical countermeasures, it is now the most hopeful that the on-grid tariff will be properly adjusted. However, he also worried that although he did not get the Guangdong Province's price adjustment plan, it is expected that the rate of increase will not be too great.

According to report, the Shanghai gas company has received verbal notice. The on-grid tariff for natural gas power generation has increased by only 5 cents from the previous 0.454 yuan/kWh (including tax) to 0.504 yuan/kWh (tax included).

Where is the road to industrialization?

The slowly advancing reform of natural gas prices will expose many natural gas power companies to higher cost pressures.

Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, said in an interview with the reporter that the National Development and Reform Commission has made it clear in the electricity price adjustment document that the specific price adjustment standards for natural gas electricity generation on-grid tariffs are formulated by the provincial-level pricing authorities and submitted to the NDRC.

In fact, the word “tight” has actually shown that the rate of increase will not be large, nor will it fully cover the cost of gas-fired power generation companies.

The reporter learned from the National Development and Reform Commission that the Price Division of the National Development and Reform Commission had previously investigated the domestic natural gas power generation companies and obtained relevant data: At present, the average on-grid tariff of domestic natural gas power generation enterprises is 0.78 yuan/kWh, in this case After the price adjustment, the average on-grid price will be 0.82 yuan/kWh.

Ma Ji told reporters that the development of gas-fired power plants is still the state-owned enterprises and local governments that are subject to pressure reduction. Due to the different prices of industrial gas in various regions, the current cost of gas-fired power generation in China ranges from RMB 0.6 to RMB 1 per kilowatt-hour, and the cost of gas-fired power generation is 2 to 3 times that of thermal power generation.

On October 21, Zhang Guobao, former director of the National Energy Administration, publicly stated that China's imported natural gas prices have exceeded the domestic price level, and the phenomenon of reverse hangup has been very serious. “At present, the natural gas price reform is in a dilemma because if we follow the market rules, we should obviously increase the price of natural gas. But on the other hand, the government must also consider inflation and take into account the acceptance of the people, and they dare not let the price of natural gas be raised. Very high."

Ma Ji is worried that the slow progress of natural gas price reform will allow many natural gas power companies to bear higher cost pressures.

Some forecasts show that by 2015 China's installed capacity for natural gas power generation will increase from 45 million kilowatts at the end of 2012 to 70 million kilowatts, and it is expected to reach 1.25 million kilowatts by 2020.

Lin Boqiang emphasized that in 2012, China's natural gas gap has exceeded 10 billion cubic meters. If the company does not consider the operational efficiency of the company and forcibly implements "coal gas reform", it will exacerbate the tight supply of natural gas, or cause a more serious "gas shortage." phenomenon.