New energy vehicle industry planning delayed the introduction of experts to suggest rational development

"What is the development direction and ultimate goal of China's new energy vehicles? Is the current development of hybrid vehicles and electric vehicles the final product? It is not very clear." - This is Premier Wen Jiabao's eighth time at the China Association for Science and Technology at the end of May. The statement made at the National Congress. As of July, the “Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2011-2020)” (hereinafter referred to as “Planning”), which is the programmatic document for the development of new energy vehicles during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, has also been delayed.

Difficult to produce "plan" and shrinking goals

The "Planning" has been discussed since 2009 and has lasted for two years. In August 2010, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology completed the drafting of this policy, and subsequently sought the opinions of all parties, and plans to introduce it at the end of the year. In March 2011, the Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Miao Wei, said in an interview with the media that the industrial plan is expected to be announced in the first half of this year. On June 22, the public information on the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that the “Planning” had been basically completed and submitted to the State Council for approval. In July, officials from the National Development and Reform Commission said that the introduction of the "Planning" may be pushed to the end of the year.

When was the "plan" introduced? A person close to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology told the China Energy News that the opportunity for the introduction of the Plan in July was very small. "It must be a matter of the next few months. It is not good to say which month," the source said.

At the same time, it is reported that the "Planning" has lowered the industrialization target of the "12th Five-Year" electric vehicle from the 500,000 units proposed by the "New Energy Automobile Industry Alliance" to 250,000 units. Li Yizhong, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and former Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, first disclosed in an interview with the media at the 2011 Global Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Summit. In 2015, the national automobile production and sales volume will reach 25 million. And pure electric vehicles only account for 1% of the market.

Although the target has shrunk dramatically, the industry has not given too much criticism. Dong Yang, executive vice president and secretary general of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, once reminded the industry that it is necessary to correctly understand the current status of China's new energy vehicle research and development. He said that according to the conclusions of a large number of research work carried out by the China Automobile Association's mainstream car companies, China has no obvious advantages in the research and development of new energy vehicles, and it is "comprehensive" compared with the world's advanced level. gap.

Zhao Hang, director of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, also said that in China, the new energy vehicle is a bit like the situation of the big steelmaking era, and the government has called for everyone to rush. Overall, domestic companies have shown some impetuousness in developing new energy vehicles.

"The preparation phase of electric vehicles is a very long process, and it is impossible to increase the amount quickly. Electric vehicles will grow rapidly after 2020." An industry veteran told this reporter, "If the "plan" is really 250,000, That proves that China's development of new energy vehicles has begun to return to rationality."

Is heartbeat greater than action?

All kinds of signs show that the development of new energy vehicles is not as smooth as people think.

Take private cars as an example. Although there are large amounts of subsidies from the state, the sales of new energy vehicles are not satisfactory. For example, BYD, from the official launch in March 2010 to the end of December, its two new energy vehicles F3DM and E6 sold only 417 and 63 respectively. Not only BYD, but all listed companies involved in new energy vehicles are facing such an embarrassing situation.

According to our reporter, at present, there is no consumer who wants to buy a new energy vehicle. One of the car buyers once told this reporter that with the rise of oil prices, the advantages of ordinary cars will gradually be lost, and the new energy vehicles are The trend of future development, "In any case, its current price is similar to that of ordinary cars. I think it is better to buy a new energy car."

However, the paradox is that basically all new energy vehicles are not fully supplied to the market. The 4S store is basically difficult to trace, consumers need to contact the manufacturer directly if they want to buy, and experience a long waiting period. And after the first enthusiasm, many 4S stores no longer have follow-up private consumers to buy electric cars.

An insider told this reporter that at present, the production and sales figures of many new energy vehicles in automobile companies are not true. "Many new energy vehicles sold now are also sold to people inside the auto industry. They also test the performance of the car when they drive. Now the private car charging pile is basically not built. I would like to ask who will save hard money. Going to the car to charge?" the person said.

Yao Chunde, executive director of the China Society of Engineering Thermophysics, also made it clear: "Some of the new energy vehicles that emerged overnight are only used to catch fish, in order to defraud the state financial subsidies and preferential policies."

Technically, Zhang Chengning, a professor at the School of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering at Beijing Institute of Technology, said: “Batteries are the bottleneck for the development of new energy vehicles.” It is understood that the charging methods for electric vehicles can be roughly divided into three types: charging through parking lots. The socket and the home are charged for a long time, charged quickly at the charging station, and replaced at the power station. Either way, the corresponding facilities need to be in place to meet the needs of new energy vehicles. Nowadays, even the charging services of pilot cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are far from meeting the basic guarantee standards.

"New energy vehicles want to enter the family, there are still many problems. In general, enterprises and consumers are still at a stage where their minds are greater than actions." An expert who asked not to be named told this reporter.

Confidence is more important than gold

Compared with new energy private cars, the development of new energy buses seems to be much smoother. A year ago, when Chinese auto companies announced their plans to develop electric vehicles, their main goal was electric cars. But now, electric buses seem to attract their attention. Because passenger cars, especially buses, are more suitable as electric cars than passenger cars. The bus has a fixed driving route, and its driving speed is also much slower than that of the car. It is also easier to find the space for storing the battery pack.

"Our bus costs 2.2 million, and the state and local subsidies are 1.5 million. This way, the price of the car is similar to that of ordinary passenger cars." A senior leader of a car group told this reporter that "and the cost of running a car is not one." One hundred yuan."

A professional who studies new energy buses told this reporter that the technology of new energy buses is relatively mature, and their routes are fixed and management is relatively concentrated. Their charging equipment construction is also easier and more complete than private cars. "But there are many problems in the development of electric buses. For example, the bus that has been raging recently has spontaneously burned," the source said.

However, regardless of the reality, there are many disputes, and the country’s development of new energy vehicles has become a foregone conclusion. According to authoritative institutions, by 2030 the world will fully enter the development stage of new energy vehicles. The World Bank’s latest report on China’s New Energy Vehicle Action Plan, Challenges and Opportunities shows: “As of 2025, global electric vehicle sales will account for 2%-25% of annual new car sales. About 10%. This shift will lead to significant changes in the entire value chain of the automotive industry."

Zhang Zhihong, deputy director of the Department of High-Tech Development and Industry of the Ministry of Science and Technology, clearly stated that the next five years will be a crucial period for the transition of electric vehicles from research and development to industrialization. "I feel very urgency when I see the rapid development of electric vehicles in the world during this time. But we still have to strengthen our confidence, or in a word, that confidence is more important than gold." Zhang Zhihong said.