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If July 2009 was the worst period for the US economy, then around November 2008 was the worst period for the Chinese economy. The Chinese economy bottomed out in the US 8-9 months ahead of schedule. If we look at the ring index, the second quarter's growth in the ring rate may be close to 18%, which means that the growth in the next three quarters will be stronger.
At present, the Chinese economy has begun to enter the consolidation period of policy effects. The next policy focus should emphasize that the driving force for economic growth is mainly from government-led demand to market-driven demand. It should be noted that under the tone of maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, there is still room for structural adjustment. Particular attention needs to be paid to emerging asset bubbles, high debt-to-debt local government financing platforms, a renewed rapid balance of payments surplus, and a smooth exit from monetary policy.
There is no upward pressure on inflation in the short term
Since 2009, prices have been negatively growing, and agricultural prices have also been in a downturn. Since the price of agricultural products has a great impact on China's CPI, and many industries have obvious overcapacity pressures, even if credit is released quickly, there is no upward pressure on prices in the short term.
However, this does not mean that inflationary pressures can be taken lightly. In the current CPI composition of China, the impact of agricultural products and related products is very significant. During the period of large economic fluctuations, the CPI's response may lag. When the Chinese economy began to fall in 2008, CPI and PPI continued to rise for some time. The economy began to recover significantly, and CPI is still negative growth, which is mainly determined by the price cycle and production capacity of agricultural products.
Although the inflationary pressure may not be obvious from the perspective of the year-on-year, from the perspective of the ring, the pressure of inflation is gathering. It is expected that by the end of 2009, the CPI and PPI will turn from negative to positive. From the characteristics of the previous round of economic cycle fluctuations, 2004-2008 was the starting period, and the rapid growth of credit pushed asset prices up, but prices remained low. Subsequently, the rise in asset prices was accompanied by overheating of the economy, combined with a combination of factors and policy-driven effects, entering a period of significant price increases and economic downturns. If you want to do analogy, the last cycle of fluctuations is of reference value. Because of the growth rate of credit supply, this time is significantly higher than the previous one, and the last price increase began with a short board of pork. The price rise of this cycle is likely to start from the specific short board in the economic operation. Significantly activated and led to other prices rising.
Concerns about prices are not worrying, because from the global trend, inflation expectations in developing countries are significantly earlier than in developed countries. It is expected that inflation levels in some Southeast Asian countries will rise to no lower levels by the end of 2009.
The asset foam formation conditions are basically
The current recovery and rise in the real estate market and the stock market are driven by both a significant recovery in economic fundamentals and a liquidity drive driven by high-speed credit. From the current situation, the first stage is basically the market recovery process based on the recovery of confidence, with certain liquidity drive, and the next major driving force should gradually shift to the valuation drive brought by the recovery of economic fundamentals.
However, the formation of asset bubbles in history has often been based on the rapid recovery of fundamentals. This optimism has been amplified by excessive liquidity, low capital costs and loose liquidity. From the trend of domestic and international capital flows, the conditions for the formation of asset bubbles are basically in place.
Since 2009, the impact of unprecedented high-speed credit supply on the economic and financial structure may be multi-faceted. The transmission channel of money delivery is diversified, not only the price of agricultural products, but also the asset market. Under China's specific economic structure, such a large amount of credit is often not absorbed by the trade sector, and may be mainly absorbed by non-traded goods such as real estate and stocks, so it is easier to form an asset bubble. Monetary policy should be vigilant against the emerging asset bubble, especially paying attention to preventing bank funds from flowing excessively into the asset market rather than entering the real economy, preventing bank funds from excessively flowing into the asset market and taking on the risk of asset bubbles.
Under the huge credit supply, China's excess liquidity index in 2009 may reach the highest point since the reform and opening up, and is expected to exceed 16%. At the same time, the excess liquidity indicators of major developed countries such as the United States also hit record highs. With the clear premise of a clear economic recovery, the stock market and the real estate market will continue to be pushed up by the influx of domestic liquidity and hot money. The asset market will remain hot until loose monetary policy has not considered exits and prices have not risen significantly to bring about regulatory pressures and significant changes in capital flows.
At the same time, in the previous phase of a series of projects to deal with the crisis, local governments borrowed heavily from investment and financing platforms to promote urbanization and played a very positive role in China's response to the financial crisis. However, the high debt ratio and solvency of local government investment and financing platforms have become the financial bottleneck for the next step of promoting urbanization investment.
At present, there are more than 3,000 local government investment and financing platforms in the country, of which more than 70% are county-level platform companies. These financing platforms are financed by various forms such as bank loans. In the urbanization process of the crisis, the liabilities The scale has rapidly increased by several trillion yuan. The repayment of these liabilities often depends on the local government's land revenue, which may objectively boost the continuous rise of land prices and the real estate bubble.
Balancing the balance of asset bubbles and accelerating economic growth
How to balance the contradiction between the asset bubble and the acceleration of economic growth? The author suggests to stabilize the capital bubble by relaxing the barriers to entry, launching the GEM, allowing local governments to issue municipal bonds, and expanding foreign investment. At the same time, after the steady recovery of the economy, the monetary policy tone will be flexibly fine-tuned in a timely manner, with the focus on promoting more liquidity into the real economy and promoting the structural transformation of the economy.
First, deregulation should be introduced to bring a large amount of liquidity into the real estate. Because of the regulation, many funds that cannot be invested have to flow into the capital market. Now that the bubble has not formed clearly, we must shift the focus from the stimulus of the total amount to the structural adjustment and deregulation, and stimulate the launch of private investment, thus bringing new growth vitality. To promote a stable recovery of the economy. At the same time of deregulation, we must actively promote the digestion of the production process, and truly maintain pressure.
Second, we must expand the proportion of direct financing and develop the capital market of the ontology. In contrast to the huge credit supply, the current direct financing ratio in the domestic market is too small, which makes the debt ratio of the entire economy higher and higher. China is in the stage of accelerating urbanization. It is realistic and reasonable to maintain a relatively high proportion of investment. The key is to find suitable financing channels to finance this rapid urbanization.
A very important advantage for China to cope with the crisis now is the urbanization promoted by all levels of government and the large amount of infrastructure investment driven by it. On the one hand, the debt ratio of local government financing platforms remains high, and on the other hand, there are still huge opportunities and opportunities in the process of securitization in China. Therefore, the bottleneck of local government financing should be solved by expanding direct investment.
Third, we must further open up foreign investment. A large trade surplus has always put pressure on the renminbi to appreciate, because for a long time, the country has always been accustomed to introducing investment, encouraging investment and limiting outflows. From the current stage of development, in the case of sufficient foreign exchange reserves, enterprises should be allowed to operate. Now the growth of foreign investment is very fast. If the policy is properly adjusted, from the perspective of the future development trend, the balance of payments will gradually reach a balance.
Fourth, promote industrial upgrading and foster new industrial growth points. It is necessary to take advantage of the timing of the financial crisis to accelerate urbanization and bring a lot of new investment opportunities. At the same time, nurturing new growth points through deregulation will also bring new growth opportunities for industries such as service industries. Since the economic recovery, the Chinese economy has shown some positive changes in its structure. For example, from the perspective of regional growth pattern, the growth rate of the central and western regions is relatively faster, which is conducive to narrowing the regional gap; private consumption demand is obviously recovering driven by the real estate and automobile markets. In addition, we must pay attention to the development of low-carbon economy, for example, to pay attention to the development of new global energy industry.
Suppression of asset bubbles requires more policy fine-tuning
The current fine-tuning of credit and monetary policy is first carried out on the basis of adhering to a moderately loose policy. From the perspective of credit growth, because the credit is mainly for some long-term and large-scale infrastructure, even if appropriate adjustments are made in 2010, the growth rate of credit is not expected to be too low. Because there is little room for adjustment in the credit capital investment required to complete these large-scale infrastructure construction, just as the macro tightening in 1993, the credit growth in the following years is still relatively rapid.
As for the suppression of asset bubbles, it is not only necessary to rely on the fine-tuning of credit and monetary policy, but also some structural reform measures, such as: introducing sufficient liquidity into the real economy through deregulation, facing the rapidly growing international The income and expenditure surplus will increase the intensity of foreign investment control and moderately adjust the exchange rate, accelerate the pace of listing of enterprises and the land supply of the real estate market, and so on. In addition, the rapid formation of asset bubbles is also related to the fact that Chinese investors can choose too few types of assets to fight inflation and serious financial innovations, prompting investors to concentrate heavily on the stock and real estate markets.
The main line of macroeconomic policy is still a steady economic recovery
From the domestic perspective, when the moderate easing policy is withdrawn and in what way, it is a very difficult choice, and it is necessary to comprehensively consider the economic situation at home and abroad.
From the perspective of direction, active fiscal policy should focus on structural adjustment, while monetary policy should pay more attention to price levels. Judging from the current trend, the main line of macroeconomic policy in 2009 is to promote a stable recovery of the economy, but it should be a plan for the gradual withdrawal of the excessively loose monetary policy after a stable economic recovery. As Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said, starting to study the exit mechanism of loose monetary policy now does not mean that the tone of loose monetary policy needs to withdraw immediately, but actively create relevant conditions to withdraw from excessively loose monetary policy to stabilize the market. Inflation expectations are positive.
From the perspective of credit supply and the growth trend of M1 and M2, the steady decline of credit supply is an inevitable trend, but this does not mean a significant tightening of liquidity, because the credit supply of 7.37 trillion yuan in the first half of 2009 is already in place. A fairly high level, even if the average monthly decline in the second half of the year is about 500 billion yuan, it may still be as high as 10 trillion yuan in the whole year, which is a fairly high growth rate.
At the same time, from the current trend, the growth rate of M1 is accelerating, and it is catching up with the growth rate of M2. On the whole, under the premise that there is no major adjustment in the policy tone, the liquidity in the second half of the year is still relatively loose. Moreover, from the trend, with the gradual recovery of exports and the inflow of foreign capital, after experiencing a possible short-term trade deficit, the Chinese economy will face a pattern of double surplus in the balance of payments in 2010, how to deal with this double surplus. The increase in liquidity is a subject worthy of early study.
A few days ago, the central bank issued 45 billion yuan of one-year central bank bills in the open market. The interest rate was the same as the previous week, ending the 7-week rally and signalling the end of the open market fine-tuning. At the same time, the 28-day positive repo yield was also unchanged from last week, at 1.18%. It is understood that the slowdown in the credit growth of the banking system is the reason why the central bank has suspended the fine-tuning in the open market. The picture shows the central bank Shanghai headquarters.
Judging from the economic growth trend from January to June, the Chinese economy has already stepped out of the V-shaped reversal, indicating that the policy to deal with the impact of the financial crisis has begun to produce positive results. From the perspective of the global economic situation, the pattern of China's economic recovery is basically confirmed.