Rebar prices continue downward trend

First, the market review:

Zhou K line shows that the main thread contract RB1305 closed small Yang Xian. This week's opening price is 3631, the highest price is 3677, the lowest price is 3620, and the closing price is 3643, which is 3% higher than the previous week, with a drop of 0.08%. The trading volume is 7.981 million lots, and the open interest is 1.003 million lots.

Second, this week, the impact of factors 1, steel (3563, -3.00, -0.08%) spot market this week, the domestic steel market fell again and again, building materials, profiles weak downward, hot, medium plate, cold roll continues to firm, However, there has been a certain amount of “stannio,” and out of stock to become the most talked about topic in the market, which is also a major factor in supporting prices. As the weather is increasingly affecting demand, trading volume will be further reduced, so the market outlook is not optimistic. Details are as follows:

1) International: The global mining giant BHP Billiton executive Wilson said on Wednesday that the company is expected to increase its iron ore production capacity by nearly one-fifth by increasing its operations in mines, railway lines and ports. The sluggish iron ore market has allowed it to consider control costs. The sluggish demand in China has made the iron ore price outlook unclear, prompting most iron ore miners to rethink their expansion plans, including the world's largest iron ore miner, Vale, according to Vietnam. ***" reported on November 9th that the General Administration of Customs of Vietnam has asked all provinces and cities to report on all imported customs declaration forms for boron alloy steels, and strictly supervised the review according to the declaration and collected sufficient evidence to avoid trade fraud; this year, the global economy has been declining. The impact of the shipbuilding capacity is oversupply, and the impact on the world’s largest shipbuilding country, Korea, is relatively large. The orders for new ships received by shipyards have been unsatisfactory. According to statistics, from January to September, the global new ship orders received only 14.34 million corrected gross tonnage, down 48% year-on-year. Compared with other shipbuilding countries, South Korea's new ships received the largest amount of 5.2 million corrected tons (36%), but still fell 59% year-on-year. The sluggish Korean shipbuilding industry directly led to a decline in plate production and demand. According to data from the Korea Iron and Steel Association, from January to September this year, the output of Korean plate and ship plate was 7.9 million tons, down 7% year-on-year. Only September production fell by 4% to 814,800 tons.

2) Domestic: Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice and decided to reduce the price of gasoline and diesel by RMB 310 and RMB 300 per ton respectively from the midnight of November 16, and measure the retail prices of No. 90 gasoline and No. 0 diesel ( The national average) decreased by 0.23 yuan and 0.26 yuan per litre respectively; a few days ago, the China Iron and Steel Industry Association held a press conference, said that the country has recently increased measures to stabilize growth, steel market has responded, steel prices have rebounded slightly since late September The steel market has gradually improved. It is expected that the demand for the steel market in the fourth quarter will improve. It is worth mentioning that since the beginning of this year, the loss of the Chinese steel industry has continued to increase. According to the latest data released by the China Iron and Steel Association, from January to September, the cumulative sales revenue of large and medium-sized steel companies decreased by 6.49% year-on-year. The loss of the loss-making enterprises was 26.726 billion yuan, 41.5 times year-on-year, and the loss reached 45%; "The annual production capacity may exceed 1 billion tons. Overcapacity is the 'crux' of the steel industry's difficulties." Vice President of China Iron and Steel Association Wang Xiaoqi At the “3rd Iron and Steel Industry Operation Conference” held on the 14th, the current surplus of the steel industry has far exceeded the scope of reasonable competition, resulting in a weak bargaining power in the domestic steel industry and an increase in raw materials such as upstream iron ore. The price cannot be transmitted to the downstream through the price, and the entire market is rushing towards pricing and vicious competition.

Construction steel: After a half-month long sideways market observation, the price of building materials fell back this week. Merchants’ prices declined from dark to bright. On the one hand, the northern resources are supplemented by low prices and the origin of market resources is gradually enriched, and the difference between costs is also widening. On the other hand, downstream demand has gradually weakened with the advent of winter. Currently, except for some small-size and seismic resources, the mainstream resources are difficult to ship. As of the close of Friday, the average price of HRB335 20mm rebar material in 25 cities across the country was RMB 3,821/t, a slight decrease of RMB 31/t from November 2; the national average price of HRB400 material with 20mm thread was RMB 3922/t, which was comparable to that of HRB335. November 9 fell slightly by 26 yuan / ton; the country's 24 major cities Q235 material 6.5mm specifications of the average price of 3766 yuan / ton, compared with November 2 down 32 yuan / ton. In addition, the differentiation of brand prices, especially in Shanghai, showed a trend of stable construction of wire rods (3565, 0.00, 0.00%), falling spirals, and weakening of threads. Among them, the thread manufacturers such as Shente and Zhongtian had their own threads. Agents frequently cut their prices this week, and the three-brand brand's thread resources decreased from the previous period. On the whole, the current pattern of strong supply and demand is basically established. With the gradual replenishment of resources, the downward pressure on construction steel prices is a foregone conclusion, and it is expected that the fall in the next week will fall.

2. The latest data from the China Steel Association’s production shows that the daily output of crude steel in key enterprises in late October was 1.5195 million tons, down 5.4% from the previous month; the national average production of crude steel was 1,927,700 tons, down by 3.7% from the previous month. The focus and the national forecast for crude steel production for the second half of the previous month were significantly more than market surprises, and when the production data was released in mid-October, industry players generally believed that the daily production of crude steel rose to over 195 million tons in October.

3. Production Costs (1) Iron Ore [Domestic Iron Ore] This week, the domestic market for ore fines remained stable overall, with small declines in individual regions. Some steel mills in the Tangshan area of ​​Hebei Province this week were affected by the drop in billets, and the purchase price was lowered by RMB 10-20/t. Due to the tight market resources during the period of the rumors, most of the merchants’ quotations were firm, and the steel mills were generally unsatisfactory.

The Hangxing area was basically stable, steel mills slowed down, some merchants shipped actively, and low-priced transactions were poor. At present, the ex-factory price of 66% Fe fine powder wet basis in Tangshan Zunhua is 790-800 yuan per ton ex-works per tonne, which is RMB 10/t lower than last week; the 66% alkaline iron concentrate dry basis of Hanxing Bureau does not include tax price 1005. Yuan/ton; Wu'an 64% alkaline iron powder wet basis without tax factory 860-880 yuan / ton, compared with last week down 5 yuan / ton; Shanxi Dai County 65% ​​iron powder wet basis without tax factory 760- 770 yuan/ton.

This week, the iron concentrate market in Liaoning remained stable, with rain and snow leading to a semi-stagnatic market. Business prices were firm but demand was sluggish, and the market was pessimistic. At present, Jianping 66% iron concentrate wet basis ex-factory price 690-710 yuan/ton (within 10 water); Beipiao 66% iron concentrate wet basis ex-factory price 670-690 yuan/ton (within 12 waters); and 65% iron powder concentrate in Anshan wet basis is not included in the mainstream price of 690-700 yuan / ton; and Liaoyang 65% iron powder base price in the mainstream of 680-700 yuan. / Ton; Benxi 670-690 yuan / ton. This week, the iron ore fines market in East China is stable, market resources are tight, and the mine sales situation is relatively good. In the recent period, steel products have fallen and merchants have been shipping more actively. At present, the execution price of dry basis of 64%-65% iron powder in Shandong Laiwu is 1060 yuan/ton; the price of 64% iron powder in Laizhou is about 1030 yuan/ton; and the price of dry basis of 64% iron powder in Maanshan, Anhui Province is included. In 930-950 yuan / ton; Fanchang, Tongling 65% iron powder price in 980-1000 yuan / ton. The iron ore fines market price in Central and South China was stable this week, and the amount of mines purchased by steel mills increased, and the market transactions were active. At present, the mainstream price of 64% iron powder dry basis in Guangdong Heyuan is 850, and the mainstream price of 65% iron powder dry basis in Huaiji is at 860; Hubei Daye 63% iron powder dry basis including tax The price is 880 yuan/ton.

[Imported ore] This week, the price of imported iron ore is operating smoothly. The supply and demand sides have low enthusiasm. The overall turnover of the inquiry offer plate is relatively small, and it is estimated that short-term fluctuations will still maintain the mode of operation. In terms of **, despite the tight port supply, the steel mills have begun to pay more attention to the inquiry and purchase of resources. However, prices have not risen quickly. The purchase of steel mills is still cautious. However, due to the market outlook is still not clear enough, the enthusiasm of the purchasers of traders is not high, the amount of saleable resources is not large, mostly in the hands of a small number of traders, quoted transactions are relatively strong. The bidding for the three major mines remained stable and the transaction price was mainly flat. At present, 63.5% of printing powder is at US$123.5/ton; PB powder is at US$118.5/ton; 63% is rough at US$121/ton; 58% Yandi powder is US$111/ton; and 53/52% is printed at US$82.5/ton. There was no change last week. On the spot side: Affected by the ***, the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude. Both the inquiry rounds and the volume of transactions have shrank significantly. As the steel prices gradually weaken, the ore market participants' mentality weakens. At the same time, due to the port's spot resources. The overall volume of supply shows a tense situation, which led to the steady spot price this week and the game between buyers and sellers. It is expected that the spot market will hardly change direction in the short term. Taking Rizhao Port as an example, 63.5% of the printing ink is at 870-880 yuan/ton, PB powder is at 830-840 yuan/ton, 63% is coarse at 835-845 yuan/ton, and Yandi powder is at 750-760 yuan/ton. 52% of the printing ink was in the range of 610-620 yuan/ton, which was generally flat. *** The boosting effect of the convening of the iron ore market will gradually disappear with the closing of the event; the impact of the cooling of the climate on the construction sites in the north will be further expanded. In particular, infrastructure construction such as railways and highways will be hindered by the “Northern Subcontinent”. The contradiction between supply and demand in the later period will be more severe, and the possibility of a broken down position in the medium and long-term import ore market will increase. Currently, the current profitability of steel mills is still acceptable, the supply of mainstream resources is relatively short, and steel mills produce in the short term. It is very difficult for power to slow down, resource demand is still large, and it is highly probable that the imported ore market will maintain narrow fluctuations in the short term.

(2) Coke This week, the domestic coke market maintained an upward trend, with the mainstream gaining RMB 50/ton, and individual regions in Shandong and Hebei above this range, while the Shanxi region's gains slowed down. On the 13th, Shenhua secondary metallurgical coke increased by RMB 50/ton, driving the secondary coke market in some regions of Northwest China and Hebei Province to rise; in addition, steel mills in Tangshan and Handan had positive enthusiasm for the overall steel products, driving the coke market in Shanxi and Hebei to continue to increase, Tangshan area Individual high resources are close to RMB 1,700/tonne; in the East China market, the secondary metallurgical coke in Nippon Steel has risen by RMB 100/ton in the middle of the week, driving up prices in markets such as Linyi and Rizhao in Shandong; the northeastern region has been significantly weakened by heavy snow this week. The goods have basically returned to normal. Some coking plants are reluctant to sell their goods, and goods are expected to go up; coke in Henan’s Pingdingshan area rose by 80, and steel purchasing enthusiasm is high. Under short-term coking coal price support, prices have risen steadily; coke market in the southwest region has been trading well this week, etc. The price of foreign coke rose by 30, and the short-term price was easy to rise and fall. The mainstream reference prices in various regions are as follows: Shanxi Province has steadily increased, the current secondary metallurgical coke mainstream 1350-1380 yuan / ton, the quasi-level metallurgical coke 1430-1480 yuan / ton, are factory tax price, a metallurgical coke Car plate tax included is 1500-1550 yuan/ton; Hebei coke market is steadily moving upwards, now two grade metallurgical coke gongs are 1480-1500 yuan/ton, Tangshan 1550-1620 yuan/ton, to the factory price; Xingtai quasi-first grade metallurgical coke Xing to factory price 1570-1590 yuan / ton, Tangshan to factory price 1660-1680 yuan / ton; Henan coke market is stable, is now two metallurgical coke 1430-1480 yuan / ton, a first-class metallurgical coke 1510-1530 yuan / ton, are For the factory tax-inclusive price; East China coke market rose, the secondary metallurgical coke mainstream reported 15 015-1550 / ton, a quasi-level 1550-580 yuan / ton, are acceptance factory tax; Northeast coke transient stability, is now two Metallurgical coke mainstream 1480-1520 yuan / ton, quasi-level metallurgical coke 1610-1640 yuan / ton, are acceptance factory tax. Port inventory: on the 16th, my steel network this week, the port coke caliber same inventory statistics: Tianjin Port 203.7 down 10.3, Lianyungang 20 increased by 1, Rizhao Port 8 by 0.1 (ten thousand tons); ** Aspect: 16th consecutive 1305 strong During the rally, it broke through the 20-day moving average and closed at 1,588 yuan, up 1.02%. The position was reduced by 1890 lots, and 600,000 contracts were traded.

(3) Ocean Shipping This week, the maritime transportation market slowed down. Continuing the slowdown in raw material import demand and the contradiction between supply and demand caused by successive delivery of new ships caused the market to continue to pressure downwards and continue to move closer to historical lows. As of the 6th, the BDI Index closed at 675 points, down 32 points or 4.52% from the same period last week. Capesize vessels rose unilaterally this week, with the BCI index closing at 1186 points, up 17 points or 1.45% from the same period last week. As both domestic steel prices and ore prices have fallen sharply, many steel mills have postponed the delivery date of the long-term mines. In addition, after previous overhauls of Australian ports caused delays in the delivery of shipments, the arrival of ships in Hong Kong in the first half of the week caused more shipments. The price was able to support the upward trend, but after entering the second half of the week, the shipment volume gradually slowed down. Prior to this, affected by the domestic typhoon weather, the ships at the anchorage also gradually returned to the market to take possession of the goods. The excess capacity could be used to stop the market from rising to falling again. According to statistics, at present there are at least 350 sea-hull vessels in the market, that is, about 25-30% of vessels with overcapacity. At present, the average daily rent for Capesize vessels has been reported at 3466 U.S. dollars/day, which has risen 6.64% this week. The Panamax ship was badly beaten by Waterloo this week, with the BPI index closing at 617 points, down 141 points or 18.60% from the same period last week, the lowest since the end of January 2009. As the most new type of ships to be delivered, excess capacity has reached an unprecedented scale, and coal has not flourished during the peak season. The drought-stricken output of the South American grain market has been declining even further, and the freight rate hit a record low. This week, crushing occasional outflows in Indonesia and South America, but still unable to curb excess capacity, weighed on freight rates. At present, Panamax boats have an average daily rent of 4,898 U.S. dollars per day, which has declined by 18.69% this week and has fallen by 62.11%. The Supramax slowed down this week, with the BSI index closing at 837 points, down 18 points or 2.10% from the same period last week. The performance of the two oceans is the opposite. In the Atlantic region, only South America to Asia routes have been traded, freight rates have stabilized, and the rest of the lines have declined to different degrees. The Pacific region benefited from the slight increase in coal import demand from India and Japan, and Indonesia obtained The number of export-qualified companies has gradually increased, and there have been occasional outflows of minerals in the region. At present, the average daily rent of the supersmart type boat is 8752 USD/day, which has dropped by 2.08% this week.

5. Inventories Downstream demand continued to be sluggish this week, and resources in some regions were hoarding, which led to a slight increase in the country's overall inventory of rebar. At present, the country's major cities rebar inventory is 4,894,400 tons, compared with last week (2012-11-9), this week the national rebar inventory rose 0.60 million tons, an increase of 0.12%; same period last year (2011-11-25 Compared with a decrease of 22,400 tons, a decrease of 0.46% year-on-year, the decrease continued to narrow over the previous week.

Rebar stocks in most domestic cities this week still show a narrow range of changes. According to the ring comparison data, the changes in each region are as follows: 13,000 tons reduction in East China, 3.67 million tons increase in Central China, 28,000 tons increase in South China, 1.218 tons increase in Southwest China, and 0.09 million increase in North China Tons, the reduction in the northwest was 34,400 tons and the reduction in the northeast was 24,300 tons.

From the perspective of major cities, the cities with more obvious inventory changes this week are as follows: Wuhan's increase is 31,700 tons, Nanning's increase is 19,000 tons, Harbin's reduction is 22,000 tons, and Lanzhou's reduction is 20,000 tons; The reduction in Shanghai was 11,100 tons.

This week, the total amount of domestic rebar stocks was reduced by 22,400 tons compared with the same period of last year, including a reduction of 92,500 tons in East China, an increase of 6,200 tons in Central China, a decrease of 17,000 tons in South China, an increase of 195,400 tons in the southwest, and a decrease in North China. 2.46 million tons, an increase of 25,400 tons in the northwestern region and a reduction of 115,300 tons in the northeastern region.

With downstream demand continuing to decline and supply not declining significantly, most domestic cities have seen rebar declining. As of the close of Friday, the average price of HRB335 material 20mm rebar from 25 cities nationwide was RMB 3818/ton, which was RMB 30/ton lower than last week. The city with the largest drop was Changsha, a drop of RMB 130/t.

Third, the outlook for the market outlook This week, the downstream demand continues to be sluggish. The pessimistic atmosphere in the market is becoming more and more concentrated. The prices of construction steel products have generally shown a weak trend. In terms of inventory, inventories in the northwest and northeast regions continued to decline, while inventories in central, south, southwest, and north china rose, and inventories in east china decreased. Looking at this week, along with the drop in temperature, local purchasing demand has shown a trend of weaker downward trend, and the prices of rebars in various markets have gradually declined. In addition, due to the traffic control and the weather in parts of the area, North Block was blocked, and resources in Jingtang Port and Bayuquan area were significantly overstretched. Thus, in the northern region, the price drop was particularly noticeable, and the difference between North and South was further widened. Under this circumstance, Hebei Iron & Steel issued the third-stage insurance policy within the year, and dealers must not sell below the limited price. This has become a major aspect of the market this week, and thus the price declines in Beijing and Tianjin have slowed down. At present, the billet has gradually declined and the cost support has weakened. Together with the end of the ***, the weather has improved and the resources in the north will eventually go south. It is expected that the price of rebar will continue to decline next week.