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Copper Market Review Copper prices have rebounded since last week's lows. Although the US dollar continues to strengthen, it remains stable. The market is supported by the declining LME inventory (now inventories have fallen below 50,000 tons again) Futures premium has expanded to (newer $180) /185). The more recently announced copper imports in China fell in the first four months of this year (down 17% from the same period in 2004). There was limited pressure on the market, but a certain degree of decline was already expected. Contrary to this It is expected that China's economic growth will remain at 9.4% in the second quarter, indicating that strong demand is still continuing. Good durable goods orders and new home sales data are also supportive from the US announcement, as well as Peruvian Tintaya copper mine following the protests of the time Suspend production after the event. The dollar appears to be higher relative to the euro. Some analysts now believe that the three-year bear market for the US exchange rate has ended. Of course, the US economy continues to show stability and is clearly in contrast with the weakness of the euro area, which is coming soon. The collapse of the new Euro Charter. To a certain extent, the further improvement of fundamentals will have an impact on the price of copper. To observe, but the impact on the exchange rate closer to the price of copper has not great. LME's inventory status reflects some manipulations. Note that the purchase order is still increasing, and now the available copper is only 30,000 tons more. It is popular to say that 20,000 tons of copper will soon arrive in Singapore. The expansion of futures premium may reflect seven There are signs of vacancy between the COMEX contracts in January and September. Although newer U.S. funds were in long positions and sell-off transactions were active in the July period, they did not cooperate with their long positions in September. Speculative buying in July coupled with unwillingness to close long positions in the long-term The position has caused the fund to try to buy LME as the option. The market has returned to stability, after the market's rapid and rapid decline to around $2950, ​​some of the more short-selling funds have covered. Supply has improved while (from It can be seen from the drop in spot premiums) that there are fine copper deposits all over the world. The futures premium still encourages long-term bulls to insist on holding, and consumer buying has reappeared. Although the short-selling of long-term producers has appeared at higher prices, If the picture surface improves and the price decisively exceeds $3080, the price should quickly cross above $3100. The technical analysis market is still stuck between the important support level of 2950 and the resistance of 3150, making the price effectively at the current range consolidation. It may still be assumed that before the lower external price has been touched, a rebasement attempt and subsequent price increase will occur in the next few trading days. However, some additional energy accumulates in any major uptick. It seems necessary to appear before, until or until the second strong resistance zone 3200/10 was conquered, the price further decline can not be ruled out now, even if the risk of a downward breakthrough is worse, it will be limited to 2850. It appears that the use of a more recent decline in the same period of the same period has not yet significantly undermined the mid to long-term bullish trend. To confirm that a major top still needs to fall below the 2500 level far below, but this appears to be Unavailable, good demand will appear at 2950 and then 2850 to limit the negative risks discussed above. However, the renewed strong price (assuming the market bottoms again below 3,000) will still be limited in the future. The main pressure is Above 3300 will still make the market lose its bullish energy. Technical Strategy: Short sell in the rebound to 3150 and 3200, if you can see, protect above 3250 (target 2950, ​​may go to 2850 to see if it is exit or reverse buy). Aluminum Market Review Following the recent reversal down to US$1,704, the price continued to remain stable, although speculative buying continued to encounter steady resistance above 1750. The strong US dollar is still a negative effect. At present, there is no interest in professional trading. It was also sporadic. In April, the shipment of aluminum products from Japan decreased, and it has been falling for four consecutive months. The decline rate is 3.1% year-on-year. At present, Japan's spot premium is about $80, and it is expected to be further in the third The quarterly drop (perhaps around $75), but it is expected that the sharp decrease in China's exports will make supply tight, and the premium will stabilize later this year. In the first four months of this year, China’s aluminum exports have increased by 40.4% year-on-year, and the government may take action to limit the import of alumina. When aluminum is produced, the export will be limited. The export tax on refined exports may increase further and may be announced in June. Technically, the current sand-reduction has stopped, and if the price can decisively close above $1755, the price may rise further to $1775/80. This may seem to be the current target in the upward direction. Technical analysis is more recent Although negative pressures have somewhat eased, technical studies have shown that any new price strengths will prove to be unsustainable, and the resistance at the top will still inhibit price increases. The current oversold indicator may trigger some rebound towards the 1800 level. The space for rebound seems to be limited. The rebound will be weighed down in the direction to the 1860. After being blocked, it will induce another short-selling. The risk will always point to 1700, and then it will approach 1650 (in this The initial evidence available at the price means that the middle bottom will appear.) Even considering the revisit to a very wide range of correctional reparations or recombinations in the coming weeks, the technical research still shows the wall closer to 1785 (an earlier period worth The low point of concern has been broken down by the medium-term technical aspects that have been significantly disrupted. This requires an extended period of time to accumulate to repair. In the absence of any such pattern, the current downside risk remains dominant. As discussed above, the downside of the price is limited to 1650o, but even if the current rebound to 1850 is correct, it will not improve the underlying technology. , The target of the price in a certain period will point to 1575. Technical Strategy: Look for new short-sell opportunities in the next good correction rally. If you can see the short-selling opportunity in 1800 1850, protect it in 1885. The target is as above As shown in the Nickel Market Review, the premium for this cycle has cooled, but the three-month price continues to find good support in the price drop. The volatility of LME nickel stocks has narrowed, although the legendary metal will come immediately? Not from Norilsk The company claimed that there was no metal inventory to be released. The price was supported early in the week because Minara's Murrin Murrin nickel plant in Australia was involved in an accident. However, it was soon under control and the damage was said to be not serious. The stainless steel scrap metal market was reported. Since the United States has peaked, orders for stainless steel products have also started to decline. China is still the promoter of the nickel market, only Demand is still in. Jinchuan Group continues to seek shares in overseas projects to support its growth to 150,000 in 2010. Production in Europe remains flat. Changes in inventory and fluctuations in spreads will continue to play a key role in the short term. The three-month price demand once made a decisive breakthrough of $16,350, and the price could return to a more recent high. The price dropped to 15,950 and the Lord may trigger some funds to close their positions. The short-term trend of technical analysis turned to wait-and-see. Prices could not break through the current narrow consolidation range, but they also found good and usual support levels. If the current support at 14785 falls, the technical side will turn negative, and the 14000 regional meeting will Exposed, and thus before the emergence of good demand. Any such weakness will remain only part of the ongoing trading, with the initial support still undisturbed, and prices more or less retested 17000 possibilities and will start such a trend? After the accumulation of energy, contrary to the resumption of the mid-term and long-term upward trend, the price is directly detached from the previous consolidation, and further corrections or at least consolidation may still be possible in the next few days. As discussed above, the price to 14000 The short-selling will occur in the absence of the current support level of 14785, and some rebasing work will therefore be necessary before any significant or sustainable rise. At the same time, the upward space for prices appears to be limited again. , because the interval has continued in the past few months. Technical Strategy: Exit the market, the price is now on the 16000 axis, one middle and one bottom is confirmed to be re-buy (above 14785) or short-selling to 14000 .