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The reporter reviewed the development plans of major auto manufacturers and found that only the six major automakers of SAIC, Dongfeng, FAW, Changan, Beiqi and Guangzhou Automobile had a production and sales target of more than 30 million by 2020. According to the capacity utilization rate of 80%, these six The car production capacity of the car companies will reach 38 million by 2020. Industry experts predict that if the industry is not guided to orderly development, the national automobile production capacity in 2020 may be as high as 50 million units, while the sales volume may be only about 31 million units by then, and there will be serious overcapacity.
2015 into the car production capacity "watershed"
Some auto company leaders and industry experts said in an interview that 2015 has become a "watershed" in China's auto industry from insufficient capacity to overcapacity.
According to a report on China's auto production capacity and analysis released by the National Development and Reform Commission and China Automotive Industry Association and China Automotive Technology and Research Center, 37 major auto companies that accounted for 98% of annual auto production have formed a total vehicle production capacity of 3122 by the end of 2015. Ten thousand vehicles, including passenger car production capacity of 25.75 million, capacity utilization rate of 81%; commercial vehicle production capacity of 5.47 million, capacity utilization rate of only 52%, which means that China's automotive industry has experienced structural overcapacity.
It is reported that China has been ranked as the world's largest automobile producer and the largest automobile market for seven consecutive years. In the past 10 years, the growth rate of domestic automobile production and sales was about 1.5 times that of GDP growth. "But since last year, China's auto market has bid farewell to the high-growth era, car sales growth will be lower than GDP growth for a long time, into the 'micro-growth' era." Automotive industry expert Zhang Yi said.
Along with the slowdown in capacity utilization and the slowdown in production and sales growth, some auto companies have also entered a mode of meager profit or even loss. A person in charge of a heavy truck company told reporters that in recent years, the heavy truck industry has continued to slump, and the inventory backlog has become more and more serious. Almost as much as the steel industry, it has reached the point of “selling for moneyâ€.
According to industry experts, the capacity utilization rate of 75%-80% between the car companies can achieve breakeven, the current utilization rate of the joint venture car enterprises is about 85%, the operating efficiency is acceptable, but the capacity utilization rate of some independent brand car enterprises Still less than 50%. In the first quarter of this year, FAW Car and Jinbei Auto turned from profit to loss. The net profit of Beijing Auto and Foton Motor decreased by more than 40%. The profits of Haima Automobile, Yaxing Bus and Jiangling Motors all fell by more than 20%.
"Ambitious" behind the current overcapacity
Although the capacity utilization rate is declining and the growth rate of production and sales has slowed down significantly, the major manufacturers have formulated “ambitious†production and sales targets for 2020, including 5.6 million Dongfeng, 4 million FAW, 4.5 million Changan, and Beiqi 450. 10,000 vehicles and Guangzhou Automobile 3 million vehicles, which means that the annual sales volume of these car companies will increase by at least 40% and up to 130% in five years.
"Although SAIC has not yet announced the '13th Five-Year' production and sales target, it can roughly calculate the scale of its production capacity of 10 million vehicles in 2020." Zhang Yi said that the total production and sales targets of the above six car companies in 2020 will reach 3000. About 10,000 vehicles; if calculated according to the capacity utilization rate of 80%, the car production capacity of the six major car companies will reach 38 million by 2020.
In addition to the above-mentioned six major car companies, other car companies are not to be outdone, the 7-11-ranked Brilliance, Great Wall, Jianghuai, Geely, Chery five car companies have more than 1 million production and sales targets, totaling more than 6 million vehicles. The total production capacity is about 7 million units; the remaining 26 auto companies and new energy vehicle projects in various regions will have a production capacity of more than 5 million units by 2020. By then, the total national automobile production capacity will reach 50 million.
“In 2015, the national automobile production and sales volume was about 24.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.3% and 4.7% respectively. If calculated according to the growth rate of 5%, the national automobile production and sales volume in 2020 will be only about 31 million units. If not suppressed, The overcapacity of production capacity will be difficult to avoid." Ling Qing, an expert in the automotive industry.
“At present, there are 6 million vehicles under construction in the whole industry, most of which are projects of the “12th Five-Year Planâ€; many car companies are still planning to expand production capacity, which will inevitably further aggravate the imbalance between supply and demand and lead to more intense price wars.†Zhang Yi It is said that this is not conducive to the healthy development of the automobile industry, and is not conducive to the transformation from a big car country to a car power.
Need to restrain investment and expand production impulse
Experts believe that the decline in car sales growth has four main factors: First, the car ownership in some big cities is saturated, traffic congestion is serious, and the cities with restricted purchase restrictions will continue to increase, affecting consumers' willingness to buy cars; Transportation, especially the rapid development of rail transit, the necessity of some consumers to purchase cars; third, the used car market is expanding, many consumers no longer buy new cars for the first time; fourth, car rental, network car and other shared car services continue Development has reduced the space for car consumption.
Relevant experts suggest that government departments at all levels and car companies should be highly vigilant about the overcapacity of auto production and restrain the impulse to invest in production expansion, especially in the commercial vehicle sector. It is even more difficult to blindly increase production capacity investment; enterprises should focus on strengthening new technologies, new product development and industry. Investing, increasing the utilization rate of existing capacity, enhancing the ability to integrate resources, and actively carrying out international capacity cooperation.
In addition, under the guidance of national policies, China's new energy vehicles have developed rapidly. In April this year, the national new energy vehicle production reached 47,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 135%. Industry experts said that the level of technology and development of new energy auto companies is uneven, and it is necessary to guard against low-level redundant construction and violations. "By 2020, the national new energy vehicle production capacity will exceed 3 million units, more than 1 million units more than the national planned production capacity, and there may be overcapacity." Zhang Yi said.
Abstract FAW-Volkswagen's North China production base with an annual production capacity of 300,000 units was started in Tianjin and is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2018. According to its plan, by 2020, Volkswagen will form a production and sales scale of 6 million units in China. Due to the optimistic outlook for the domestic market, not only big...
FAW-Volkswagen's North China production base with an annual production capacity of 300,000 units was started in Tianjin and is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2018. According to its plan, by 2020, Volkswagen will form a production and sales scale of 6 million units in China. Due to the optimistic outlook for the domestic market, not only Volkswagen, but also major domestic and foreign manufacturers are planning to expand production capacity and increase production and sales in the “13th Five-Year Planâ€.