The methanol market is basically stable and the fundamentals are optimistic

Since mid-October 2012, the main contract price of methanol has been narrowed within the range of RMB 2780-2860/tonne. Currently, domestically, methanol has a relatively stable macroeconomic outlook and optimism.

First, the cost of imported methanol is firm and the inventory is slightly higher

The period of centralized maintenance of peripheral devices is about to pass, and the tension of imported supplies has eased. Indonesia's 660,000-ton methanol plant will be shut down for maintenance for one month to one and a half months in the first week of November, and is expected to reduce the supply of about 2.6 million tons; the previous batch of overhauled Brunei 850,000 tons/year plant and plum The Saunis 1.8 million tons/year installation is facing a restart. The device overhauled the external disk prices and formed a strong support. The FOB Rotterdam price rose by nearly 19 euros to 326.30-327.30 euros/ton, with a weekly increase of 6%; FOB US Gulf quotes rose by 11 cents to 128 cents/gallon, a weekly increase. 9%. The cost of importing methanol is high. According to CFR China's low-end offer price, the conversion cost is about 2810 yuan/ton, plus the port miscellaneous fees and canning fees, which are much higher than the spot prices in the domestic port areas.

In the current economic downturn, despite the poor demand for products, companies are still reluctant to sell at low prices, otherwise losses will increase, and coastal prices will remain stalemate. In terms of inventory, Jiangsu stocks are 462,500 tons, Ningbo is 64,000 tons, and South China is 121,000 tons, which is 0.1 million tons higher than last week. Port inventory is still in the slow destocking process.

Second, start-up load decreased, domestic surplus surplus

The domestic methanol market starts at 56%, and the northwest region starts at 62.5%. The weekly rate has fallen by over 3%. In September of this year, China's methanol production was 2.409 million tons, an increase of 21.5% over the same period of last year; from January to September, the cumulative production was 19.856 million tons, an increase of 19.3% over the same period of last year. With the accelerating pace of capacity expansion, production has also shown a corresponding increase. The price of most manufacturers in the mainland loosened last week. Yulin, a cesium ore mine in northern Shaanxi, took the lead in downward adjustment, making the entire northwestern market focus down. Afterwards, Boyuan, Jiutai, Xinao, and Shenmu also followed loose, followed by major consumer markets such as Shandong and Hebei. Prices have also seen a downward trend, and mainland prices have experienced a wave of declines.

In the later period, the market needs to pay close attention to the production of the new equipment in the country and the recovery of some large-scale equipment routine maintenance. In addition, under the background of the distinct trade differentiation in the geographical distribution of methanol production and consumption, as the link between the supply side and the demand side, “transportation” will also have a significant impact on prices.

Third, the traditional downstream lackluster, olefin heat is heating up

In the traditional downstream, formaldehyde entered the off-season. As the weather turned cold, the downstream demand for formaldehyde weakened and the market entered a correction period. PetroChina's Sinopec companies have recently pushed prices for liquefied gas, but the degree of downstream acceptance is not high, and the dimethyl ether market has not been alarmed. Recently, Inner Mongolia Datang Coal Chemical Co., Ltd.'s 1.68 million tons/year olefin maternal methanol plant failed. The news that it will go out to purchase methanol at the beginning of next month is favorable for the market. It is expected that the purchase volume will be 20,000 to 40,000 tons, which also makes the previous year's methanol demand flat. The quarter has changed this year. In addition, Ningbo Qianyuan 600,000 tons/year methanol-to-olefins plant is expected to be put into production around November, according to the ratio of methanol to olefins 3:1, the procurement of equipment will support the demand for methanol in East China.

At present, the methanol spot company's attention to ** continues to increase. From a fundamental perspective, the recent methanol supply tends to be loose, and the demand for methanol from olefin plants has become the most attractive focus in the market and has also become a major support for downstream demand. From a technical point of view, the main 1301 contract oscillation interval has not yet been broken, operation, concerned about the 2850-2780 range, if the price breaks down the edge of the oscillation 2780, dips can be arranged more than a single mid-term, stop loss 2750.