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After the Cold War, Western capitalism entered a new stage, that is, the physical industry moved outward and the virtual economy expanded. Developed countries began to shift to the production of financial products, and these products were exchanged with the physical products of developing countries, and the asset bubble and trade deficit expanded. However, after the asset bubble burst in 2007, the crisis began to break out. The developed countries wanted to go back to the old road of developing the real economy and proposed the so-called "re-industrialization", but they did not achieve results and were forced to go to the old road.
QE shrinks loose currency is still
Look at the United States first. The US stock market hit a record high of 50 last year. The Dow rose 27%, the S&P index rose 30%, the Nasdaq index rose 34%, the Nikkei index rose 57%, and the European index 17%. Not only the stock market, but also the real estate prices in developed countries have risen rapidly in the past two years. In 2013, house prices in the United States also rose by 13%, and prices in more than 300 cities have exceeded the pre-crisis period.
If there is a support for the recovery of the real economy, the stock market and real estate boom is normal, but it was not until 2012 that US GDP returned to the level before the crisis, until November 2013, when the US industrial index returned to its highest point before the crisis. Therefore, the prosperity of the stock market and real estate is just a new way of going back to the old road that led to the financial crisis.
Whether there is a bubble in the US stock market can also see its price-earnings ratio. The US Rosso 2000 Index reflects the stock price level of SMEs. Last year, its average P/E ratio was as high as 75 times. The Dow and S&P's P/E ratio were also between 17-20 times. Last year, China’s economy was better than the United States, but the price-earnings ratio of A-shares was only nine times last year. Therefore, the US stock market is good, not economically good, but supported by ultra-loose liquidity.
The Fed said it wants to withdraw from QE. From the beginning of this year, it will reduce the purchase of government bonds by 10 billion US dollars each month. Since the news was announced in early December last year, the US stock market has not risen. The Americans say that this means that our stock market is not built on money, but on strong economic support. However, the reality is that in the first two weeks after December 2013, the Fed’s money supply increased by $123 billion. Last year, the Fed’s annual currency issuance was $563 billion, and $123 billion was equivalent to one-fifth of the new currency for the year. The Fed still relies on increasing liquidity to support asset prices and maintain market confidence, but the means have changed. Money has been purchased from the Federal Reserve to purchase Treasury bonds, and it has become a financial institution to acquire bad assets. One of the means is “reverse repurchaseâ€, that is, the Fed uses cash to acquire various assets of financial institutions. Last year, the Federal Reserve raised the ceiling for financial institutions to apply for reverse repurchase from $500 million to $1 billion, and in December it rose to $3 billion. In December last year, the Fed sent more than $230 billion in cash to more than 100 US financial institutions in a single reverse repurchase, repurchasing a batch of various types of bonds of unknown quality. Therefore, Bernanke said in his last inaugural speech on January 3 this year that the United States will not end the loose monetary policy, but the method has changed, and it is "using a special method to maintain QE." In fact, it is for these financial institutions to continue to issue financial products, let China and other countries to buy, in order to form a surplus under the asset, and then to maintain the deficit under the current account, or play before the crisis. When the bubble is broken, it may not be broken this year, but it is very likely that the bubble will burst next year. In 2013, there was a big change in the US currency. The total number of new QEs and new M2s in the past few years was almost equal, but the QE in 2013 was almost $100 billion, and the M2 only increased by $560 billion. A considerable portion of the newly issued currency has begun to leak. Last year, the euro began to strengthen, and a large amount of money entered Japan, which may be related to the outflow of the US currency.
Japan's real economy is difficult to recover
Look at Japan again. Japan is the first country in the developed world to have an asset bubble crisis. Since the crisis of the 1990s, although it has been going through more than 20 years, the Japanese economy has never gone out of the doldrums. From the case of Japan, we can observe the trend of the current world financial crisis. Since Abe’s rise to power, Japan has implemented a monetary policy that is more lenient than the United States. According to Abe’s vision, the extremely loose monetary policy is followed by an extremely loose fiscal policy, and then through the “ultra-looseness†of fiscal and monetary policies, which has caused private investment demand and ultimately led to economic growth. This is what Abe calls “three arrowsâ€. . In 2013, we have seen that Abe’s first arrow shot quite fiercely, 100 trillion yen has been sent out, and the second arrow, the finances, also shot a part. The key is how the third arrow can’t shoot. . Observing Japanese private equipment investment until November was still negative growth, a large number of Japanese-owned brand companies continue to shut down their factories in the local area and rely on the sale of assets to live. The stocks of these companies sell well and their profits increase. They sell their local and overseas assets and boost their stock prices by temporarily increasing their profits. What is reflected behind this is that the Japanese real economy has not improved its international competitiveness because of its ultra-loose fiscal and monetary policies. On the contrary, Japan's excess supply of money, mainly into the stock market, can only ignite the virtual fire of the virtual economy.
Japan, an export powerhouse that has maintained a trade surplus for a long time after the war, has had a trade deficit for 18 consecutive months at the end of last year. The electronics industry, which has long supported Japan’s export and trade surplus, saw a trade deficit for the first time last year. In the first 11 months of last year, Japan sold 6.4 million flat-panel TVs, of which only 200,000 were produced locally, and the rest were imported, most notably from China. In the past, Japan's LCD technology was the most advanced in the world, but Japan's Sharp Corporation has sold only two LCD factories in the country last year. By the end of 2012, China’s technology gap with them was only two years, and there were more than a dozen of the world’s most advanced LCD factories in China. It can be seen from the situation in Japan that the factors that lead to the economic virtualization of developed countries have not disappeared even after the crisis erupted, but continue to play a role, which inevitably leads to a new and more serious crisis.
European economic growth is blocked
Of the three major economies, only Europe looks good, but the growth rate of the entire Eurozone in 2013 was -0.5%, and it is still falling. Europe and the United States and Japan are taking different paths. They are forced to lower the national debt and lower the deficit to the proportion of GDP in order to maintain fiscal balance and sustainability. However, this still cannot solve the problem of the international competitiveness of the industry. Therefore, the unemployment rate in Europe has not decreased to the present, or it is still above 13%, and the highest time is more than 15%. The good side of the European economy is that countries with higher sovereign debt risks are lowering their Treasury yields. For example, Greek government bonds yielded more than 30% at the highest rate, and fell back to 8% in 2013; Irish government bond yields have reached 3%. This is a good sign, but the problem is that the industries in these countries are always unable to get up.
The European Central Bank has given more money, and no one has invested, because now many commercial banks (the market area) have taken money from Europe, want to invest in enterprises, companies do not want loans, and finally return the so-called financial aid loans to the central bank in advance. . Now that the European Central Bank’s excess reserves in the European Central Bank are unprecedented, the European Central Bank has to implement a negative profit policy on excess reserves, forcing commercial banks to take money out to corporate loans. In the past, the situation in southern and northern Europe was similar to the economic relationship between China and the United States. That is, southern European countries are imported from the Nordic countries by high debt. Therefore, Germany, the Netherlands and other countries have trade surpluses and economic growth is good. However, after the European sovereign debt crisis broke out, the financial and trade deficits of southern European countries were greatly reduced. It is suppressed. The euro zone is a highly closed trade circle, and about 80% of trade takes place internally. Without the import of southern Europe, there would be no Nordic exports, and there would be no economic growth in Germany and other Nordic countries. If you want to go outside Europe, you have to compete with a country like China, but it is even more competitive, so even if it is compressed Sovereign debt has achieved a fiscal balance, but it still cannot solve the key problem of economic growth.
Reshaping the international monetary system
I think the timing of the new round of global financial crisis is likely to be around July 2015. The crisis will first erupt in the United States, or it will be characterized by the bursting of the asset bubble and will lead to the collapse of the dollar system. The next financial crisis will be more serious than the previous round. Because if the financial crisis breaks out again, what can developed countries take to save themselves? Both fiscal and monetary policies have been exhausted. What is the crisis in the financial system? The financial system has collapsed, the real economy that has been declining will be faster, the currency will lose its support, and the financial crisis will come along with the currency crisis.
If the international monetary system collapses, China’s biggest danger is that exports are affected. Since last year, the economic pattern of developed countries and China has returned to the subprime mortgage crisis. In China's economic growth, the growth rate of investment has declined, and the income of residents and real consumption has also declined. The real demand for recovery is exports. Since the new millennium and before the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, China’s economic growth has mainly been driven by exports. However, if the new crisis once again breaks China’s export recovery, the hope of the Chinese economy’s “guarantee 7†will be very slim.
The biggest problem facing China now is overproduction, and the root cause of overproduction is that the distribution gap is too great. China's current income distribution gap comes from two aspects. One is because the income gap between urban and rural residents is too large, and the other is the income gap between urban and rural residents is too large. Therefore, in the future, we must vigorously promote urbanization and promote the reform of the income distribution system. The reform focuses on improving the efficiency of enterprises, such as relaxing market access and reducing project approval. This is basically the reform idea of ​​decentralization and decentralization since the Third Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee, but after more than 30 years of reform, it is currently The contradictions in China's economic system have shifted from the field of production and circulation to the field of distribution. What needs to be adjusted is the distribution relationship between enterprises and residents, and between residents, rather than the relationship between the state and enterprises. If the focus of the reform is not accurate, the reform will not be able to receive significant results.
Looking forward to the next 20 years, developed countries will continue to consume economic strength in the long-term crisis. Among the developing countries, only China is a big manufacturing country. If the reform of urbanization and income distribution system is the driving force, the Chinese economy will have the ability to achieve an average annual growth rate of 9% in the next 20 years. Therefore, in the next 20 years, only China has the ability to achieve expansion, while countries outside China are in a contraction phase. If we can grasp this historical opportunity, we can become the new world leading force.
The domestic and international economic situation in 2013 seems to me to return to the pattern before the crisis broke out, and it is brewing a new and bigger crisis.