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As the world's largest producer and producer of primary aluminum, China imports some alumina to meet demand. However, if refineries such as Chinalco (601600, stocks) are expected to increase production capacity, the number of alumina imports will decrease next year.
Antaco's Huo Yunbo said at an industry conference in Zhengzhou that China's alumina production in 2011 will increase by 19.2% to 36.7 million tons, higher than the production forecast of 30.8 million tons this year.
“Half of the new capacity started this year will not be fully operational until next year,†Huo said.
Huo expects that the annual alumina production capacity will increase by 5.9 million tons to 41.04 million tons this year and will further increase to 46.44 million tons next year.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, alumina production in the first nine months of this year increased by 33.4% from the same period of the previous year to 21.9 million tons.
Antaike and the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association also compiled production data, but there are discrepancies with official data.
Alumina consumption will increase to 38.8 million tons next year, based on an expected aluminum production of 19.5 million tons in 2011.
In the first nine months of this year, China's alumina imports totaled 3.18 million tons, a decrease of 22.4% from the same period of the previous year.
China's aluminum smelters are cautious about finalizing a new alumina import contract next year, due to high prices, and Western large alumina producers are planning to switch to an index pricing mechanism.
State-owned research group Antaike said on Tuesday that China will produce 95% of domestically needed alumina next year, up from 88% this year, boosted by capacity expansion.