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Next target point
On June 19, 2010, the exchange rate mechanism that has been used since the financial crisis has ceased to exist. The exchange reform that began in 2005 has restarted. In the controversy of the market, the RMB has leaped forward, from June 19, 2010. 6.8275:1 to 6.6128:1 on January 12, 2011.
Regarding the reason for the appreciation of the renminbi, Zhang Jianhua, the director of the Central Bank Research Bureau, summed up three points: the surplus does not fall, the FDI does not decrease, and the hot money. “Although the State Administration of Foreign Exchange began to strengthen capital controls a few months ago, strong money supply (M2) growth indicates that there is still a large inflow of non-foreign direct investment (or 'hot money'), RMB appreciation and new quantification. The large amount of sustained domestic and foreign interest rate differentials in the loose (QE2) environment also stimulated the increase in non-foreign direct investment inflows,†said Chang Jian, a Barclays capital economist.
"According to the policy of the central bank, the RMB exchange rate is implemented with reference to a basket of currencies and a managed floating exchange rate mechanism. If the basket is functioning effectively, the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar should largely conform to the fluctuation of the US dollar index. Rhythm. From the actual performance, the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate basically corresponds to the US dollar index. However, we also notice that this response is not obvious in a considerable number of stages, such as July, September, and sometimes There is even a divergence." Liu Dongliang, a senior foreign exchange analyst at China Merchants Bank (13.05, -0.15, -1.14%) told reporters.
There is little objection to the pace of RMB appreciation. UBS Securities expects the RMB to appreciate by 6% in 2011, driven by rising international pressure. By the end of 2011, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will reach 6.2; JP Morgan Chase expects the RMB against the US dollar to remain at US$1 by the end of 2011. At the level of RMB 6.3, the pace of appreciation may accelerate; CICC expects that the real effective exchange rate of the RMB will rise by 5% in the next 12 months, Michael Buchanan, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong, said that the yuan will appreciate against the US dollar by the end of 2011. 5.8%.
Behind the gradual rise of the renminbi, the voice of appreciation against inflation is very popular. "Relying on accelerating appreciation to curb inflation has more harm than good. Because overseas commodity prices fluctuate sharply, the annual rise and fall can even reach 50% or even 100%. It is obviously half the effort to hedge against import price pressure by appreciation. At the same time, accelerated appreciation may be Attracting more overseas hot money into China, intensifying China’s liquidity, and fueling inflation,†Liu Dongliang said.
International footsteps
Different from the slapstick swords of Chinese and American politicians on the exchange rate issue, the pace of RMB internationalization is more pragmatic. Recently, the foreign exchange market of the Bank of China (3.25, -0.03, -0.91%) has officially launched the exchange of RMB against Malaysian Ringgit and Russian Ruble, following the US dollar, Hong Kong dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen and British Pound, Bank of China. The foreign exchange market has recently introduced a foreign currency type of RMB transactions. At the same time, the renminbi is also listed on the Malaysian and Russian foreign exchange markets. Most importantly, the Bank of China has opened up US customers to use renminbi transactions.
At the same time, the pace of the pilot cross-border trade settlement of RMB has obviously begun to accelerate. In the third quarter of 2010, the total cross-border trade settlement of RMB reached 126.5 billion yuan, up 160% from the 486.5 billion yuan in the second quarter. "Based on the current state of China's foreign trade and the willingness of other countries to allow overseas currency trading in their own countries, the Singapore dollar (SGD) and the Australian dollar (AUD) are expected to launch trading in the RMB in the inter-bank foreign exchange market in China." Standard Chartered Bank Asia Exchange Research director Thomas Harr said.
It is reported that the world's fifth largest stock exchange, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, is preparing to establish a pool of RMB, allowing investors who do not have RMB to use the pool of funds for RMB stock trading. Li Xiaojia, president of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, told the media that there may be a renminbi stock issue soon. Sun Zhaodong, senior economist at China Construction Bank (4.91, -0.01, -0.20%) commented: "I have achieved the internationalization of the RMB under the capital account and accelerated the process of RMB internationalization in Hong Kong. I agree with Hong Kong's innovation. I hope. Macau and Taiwan can also actively follow up! China's renminbi is becoming the world's renminbi, first come first served."
As of the end of 2010, the balance of the state's foreign exchange reserves was 2,877.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.7%, while the trade surplus in 2010 was 183.1 billion yuan. In the first 11 months of 2010, China's foreign direct investment was 91.7 billion US dollars. Behind this series of figures is the appreciation of the yuan against the US dollar by 3% in 2010. On January 12, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar broke the new high since the exchange reform, and closed at 6.6128. Just over half of the first month of 2011, major institutions made a collective trend judgment on the trend of the RMB against the US dollar. : Continue to appreciate.