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The latest report of JPMorgan Chase expects that in 2014, due to the oversupply of the world market, the price of aluminum, nickel and zinc will fall sharply; the impact of oversupply will be slightly reduced in the next four weeks, but in the long run, the supply and demand of the copper market will be balanced, so the future copper price The trend will remain stable.
JPMorgan Chase said that although the New York Mercantile Exchange is actively adopting various measures to cut off the production sources of aluminum or reduce the storage capacity, it still cannot prevent the global oversupply trend of aluminum since 2007, and the aluminum price will still be over-supplied in the coming year. The impact was forced to fall sharply.
According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global aluminum market has a surplus of 318,000 tons in the first 10 months of this year. The excess of primary aluminum in the first 10 months of this year was about one-fifth of the surplus of 1.458 million tons in the same period last year.
In the commodity market, most of the base metals are in surplus, and nickel is no exception. JPMorgan believes that from a supply perspective, nickel producers continue to have high nickel production in order to maintain low average production costs; from a demand perspective, as China has reduced demand for nickel since this summer, The demand for nickel in the world market has been greatly reduced. Therefore, under the combined effect of supply and demand, the price of nickel will continue to fall in the coming year.
Oversupply also weighed on the price of zinc. The JP Morgan Chase report pointed out that on the supply side, due to increased investment in zinc in some regions, producers have stimulated large amounts of zinc. On the demand side, since 2013, China’s domestic zinc production has increased to meet domestic demand, so the amount of zinc imported from the world market has decreased, making the demand for zinc in the world market greatly affected. Zinc prices will also fall in the future international market.
As for the recent copper price, JP Morgan Chase expects that copper prices will fall slightly in the next four weeks, but the long-term copper price is stable and there is no significant fluctuation. In the next four weeks, the demand for copper in the world market is expected to increase by 4.6%, the supply of copper will increase by 7.4%, and the supply will be excessive in the short term, and the price of copper will be slightly lower.
For the long-term copper price, JPMorgan Chase is relatively optimistic. “With the booming development of China's infrastructure sector, the demand for copper in the world market has increased significantly. The demand for copper in China will increase by 128% in the future, which will help the supply and demand of copper in the world market. It tends to be balanced. Therefore, long-term copper prices are expected to remain stable."
However, Barclays Bank believes that due to supply shortages, base metals are expected to rise in 2014, especially nickel will increase greatly, and unfavorable economic factors may continue to put pressure on gold and oil prices, and encourage investors to avoid Open these goods.
The Barclays report also said that compared to other commodities, nickel prices may be particularly noticeable as Indonesia plans to ban resource exports. It is expected that the average price of nickel will reach $14,750/ton in the first quarter of next year, and the next time will exceed $15,000/ton.
The oversupply situation in the global nickel market has not eased this year. According to the International Nickel Research Organization (INSG), global nickel market production increased by 9% in 2012, with an oversupply of 90,000 tons; in 2012, global nickel consumption was 1.658 million tons, and the same period was 1.753 million tons. In the first nine months of this year, the global nickel supply surplus expanded to 127,000 tons.
From the market transaction data, as of December 18, LME three-month nickel price closed at $14,055/ton, down more than 20% from the initial price of $17,700/ton; LME three-month aluminum price closed at $1,800/ton Nearby, compared with the beginning of the year 2,100 US dollars / ton fell close to 15%; LME three-month copper fell from 8200 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the year to December 18, $ 7230 / ton, the decline also exceeded 10%.
Abstract With the end of the commodity super cycle, basic metal prices have not risen and fallen since the beginning of this year. For the upcoming 2014, due to oversupply, base metals will continue to rise and fall in 2013. The latest report of JPMorgan Chase is expected in 2014,
With the end of the commodity super cycle, basic metal prices have not risen and fallen since the beginning of this year. For the upcoming 2014, due to oversupply, base metals may continue to rise and fall in 2013.