Phosphate fertilizer domestic consumption space peaked in the chemical industry

Global phosphate reserves have increased in fluctuations, with production peaking later than 2035. The current basis for the evaluation of global phosphate rock reserves is based on the annual United States Geological Survey (USGS) assessment. However, the USGS definition includes economics, and cites a large number of external reports. This leads, on the one hand, to advances in mining technology and increases in phosphate ore prices to increase USGS reserves; on the other hand, externally reported reserve assessments are extremely unstable ( For example, if IFDC increased Morocco's reserves by 10 times in 2010, the integration between the two countries will increase the value of global reserves from 34 billion tons in 1995 to 71 billion tons in 2011, an increase of 108.8% in 16 years. According to the European Union-funded SEI research point of view, combined with the current reserves, the global phosphorus production peak should be later than 2035.

Global grade declines, and production capacity is concentrated in Africa. Phosphorus concentrate grades produced in major regions of the world have been declining steadily from 31.4% in 1999 to 30.75% in 2010, with the most significant declines in Africa and North America. The low grade means that the quality of the ore in the world is declining, the impurity content is higher, the cost of washing is increased, and the price of phosphate rock is pushed up. The proportion of African phosphate rock exports in the world has been around 50%, and the overall export volume has recovered to the pre-crisis level after the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 hit, while the export of phosphorus chemical products is increasing, and the global market share of phosphoric acid and MAP Ten percentage points have increased by 10 years. This indicates that global phosphorus production has continued to concentrate in Africa. On the other hand, African countries have shifted their exports of pure ore to deep-process downstream products. With regard to overall grade and origin, we expect the supply side will boost the global average price of phosphate ore by 20% to 30% in the next five years.

Taking the United States as a mirror, the on-site conversion rate of phosphate rock in China is a major trend. The United States is a relatively well-developed phosphate fertilizer industry, and imports phosphate rock for export. The in-situ conversion rate of phosphate rock exceeds 100%, and phosphate rock that accounts for 81.5% of total production is in the hands of Mosaic, PCS, and CF. China's phosphate minerals are of low quality, relatively sparse mining, and in-situ conversion rates are not high. Therefore, policies have been introduced from the central government to local governments to limit the outflow of phosphate ore. Although the price of phosphate rock is only half of that of the international market, the annual export quota set by the Ministry of Commerce cannot be met. . Under the advantage of occupying the price of phosphate rock, China's phosphate fertilizer lacks an integrated cost-intensive advantage. The price of diammonium is instead equal to that of the international market, and its profitability is weaker than that of the United States.

Global demand has grown steadily and bioenergy has weakened. The growth of the world's population and the improvement of diets in developing countries are the driving forces for the global demand for phosphorus resources. The promotion effect is long-lasting and stable. IFA predicts that the average annual increase in demand for phosphate fertilizers will be about 2.5% in the next five years. Bioenergy from corn ethanol was considered to be an important force to stimulate corn production and increase phosphate fertilizer demand around 2007. This report details the series of bioenergy support policies in the United States since 2007 and finds the most critical biofuel standards. The demand for ethanol corn promoted by the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) has peaked in 2011 and will stop growing in 2015. The focus of biofuels policy is not corn, but low-energy advanced biofuels. According to further calculations, with the expiry of part of the tax subsidy policy at the end of 2011 and the soaring maize prices pushed by drought, the 2012 corn ethanol production in the United States has fallen into a loss. At the same time, the US ethanol gasoline E10 market is nearly saturated, and RFA data show that in the United States, net exports of ethanol in the United States reached 940 million gallons in 2011, a year-on-year increase of 144%, indicating that domestic consumption space has peaked.